Andy J Climate Change And Cassava In Latin America July 2009
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This document discusses the expected impacts of climate change on cassava production in Latin America. Global climate models project increases in temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns across Latin America by 2050. Modeling studies also find that suitable areas for cassava cultivation will shift, with some areas gaining suitability while others may lose it. However, developing new cassava varieties with improved drought, heat, or cold tolerance could help address changes to climatic constraints and allow for expanded cassava production. Further analysis is still needed on pest and disease impacts and post-harvest effects, but crop improvement efforts can help support adaptation to climate change.
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Andy J Climate Change And Cassava In Latin America July 2009
- 1. Climate change and cassava in Latin America Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata
- 5. Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008
- 6. How can we be sure that it is changing?
- 9. Arctic Ice is Melting
- 14. So, what do they say?
- 21. Colombia compared to the world Colombia Mundo +4.5ºC +14% +3.1ºC +8.1%
- 27. Changes in Cassava production areas in Latin America
- 28. Impacts on production of cassava
- 31. Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050… but many areas of Latin America suffer negative impacts
- 32. What are the expected global benefits? Increase of 5-10% in potential land area for cassava when implementing either drought or flood tolerance 21.9 million hectares (16.9% of global cassava fields) under cultivation would benefit 63.3 million hectares of new land would become suitable for cassava
- 33. …… .and for Latin America? Drought or flooding tolerance 30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance 1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint 2.23m Ha of current production 2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
- 34. …… .and for Latin America? Heat or cold tolerance 27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance 2.23m Ha of current production 2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
- 35. Evaluating Technology Options: Crop Improvement for Cassava Grey areas would get no benefit from drought or flood tolerance. Blue areas benefit from drought tolerance improvement Purple areas benefit from flood tolerance improvement
- 36. Pest and Disease Impacts
- 37. Impacts on green mite to 2020
- 38. Impacts on whitefly to 2020
Notas del editor
- What we need - mythic solution sequester carbon, reduce soil loss, stop slash and burn, reduce emissions - food security, stop pollution etc.
- How are we going to estimate the effects of climate change on agriculture unless we’re going to wait for it to happen? Past changes are not really a good estimator. The little ice age starting in 1450 or thereabouts was a major event, completely changing the life styles and agriculture in Europe. It is piddling compared with what we are likely to see in the next 20 to 50 years. We must therefore rely on modeling situations that we have never before seen.