Julian R - Using the EcoCrop model and database to forecast impacts of cc

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Preliminary results on the assessment of global food security issues under changing climates. Presented at Tyndall Centre, Norwich, UK, by Julian Ramirez

Tecnología

Using the EcoCrop niche model to forecast impacts of climate change on global crop production Julián Ramírez and Andy Jarvis International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) Bioversity International Cali, Colombia

Impact assessment: methods and data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Model: EcoCrop ,[object Object],It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation… … and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…

Playing around with all this… ,[object Object]

More regional level impacts Percent of crops with significant gains /losses in each region… bad news for North and Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean and the Pacific… Maximum positive and negative changes per region… Europe: the big winner…

And a bit more… ,[object Object],[object Object]

Crop-based results ,[object Object],Contrasting responses on the same industry

Regional and crop-based results: contrasts EUROPE NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA

Country based results Current suitability and predicted changes to 2050s for geographic regions. Note the high variability in SSA and Asia, while relatively low variability in changes within Latin America Current suitability and number of crops with significant negative changes. Bubble size is Infant Mortality Rate

Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s

Winners and losers Number of crops with more than 5% loss Number of crops with more than 5% gain

Next steps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Next steps: validate and adjust the parameters ,[object Object],[object Object],Suitability prediction Visual validation Survey to gather validation data

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This presentations targets students or working professionals. You may know Google for search, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Gmail, but did you know Google has many developer tools, platforms & APIs? This comprehensive yet still high-level overview outlines the most impactful tools for where to run your code, store & analyze your data. It will also inspire you as to what's possible. This talk is 50 minutes in length.

Powerful Google developer tools for immediate impact! (2023-24 C)

wesley chun

Julian R - Using the EcoCrop model and database to forecast impacts of cc

1. Using the EcoCrop niche model to forecast impacts of climate change on global crop production Julián Ramírez and Andy Jarvis International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) Bioversity International Cali, Colombia

6. More regional level impacts Percent of crops with significant gains /losses in each region… bad news for North and Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean and the Pacific… Maximum positive and negative changes per region… Europe: the big winner…

10. Regional and crop-based results: contrasts EUROPE NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA

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12. Country based results Current suitability and predicted changes to 2050s for geographic regions. Note the high variability in SSA and Asia, while relatively low variability in changes within Latin America Current suitability and number of crops with significant negative changes. Bubble size is Infant Mortality Rate

13. Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s

14. Winners and losers Number of crops with more than 5% loss Number of crops with more than 5% gain

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Julian R - Using the EcoCrop model and database to forecast impacts of cc

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