1. d.giraldo@cgiar.org Event name
danagirandom@gmail.com
Using multi-site experimental data for seasonal
CCAFS: An Overview
forecasting and future conditions of crop yield
Case Study : Potato and Bean
Mg. Sc. Diana C. Giraldo
Name
Position

2. 2 • 3/21/11
Theme Leader: Andy Jarvis & Andy Challinor (CIAT)
Theme Leader: Roberto Quiroz (CIP)

3. ACTIVITY RATIONALE
3 • 3/21/11
Seasonal weather forecasting is of paramount importance in order
to assess and address vulnerabilities of agriculture to short-term
climate variations and climate risk. However, coupling crop models
with seasonal weather forecasts is not an easy task, partly
because of our limited understanding of climate and biological
systems, access to multi-sites experimental data, the differences
in modeling scales, and possible feedbacks and partly due to the
gap between climate and agricultural science.
Using the information of the AgTrials data repository for a set of
key sites in the Andean region, We’re exploring the feasibility of
the application of two crop models (SOLANUM-potato and
CROPGRO-bean) over seasonal weather forecasts, to evaluate
their accuracy and effectiveness for adaptation and the form for
improving models of agricultural production under current and
future conditions.

4. Using multi-site experimental data for
4 • 3/21/11
seasonal potato/bean yield forecasting
Climate and crop Potato/bean yield
data collation simulation using Potato/bean yield
observed data simulation using
Impacts
ETA model output
www.agtrials.org
Seasonal climate forecast data is useful for driving the SOLANUM and
CROPGRO models for most sites/seasons

5. 5 • 3/21/11
P
A BATATA
P POTATO
A

6. POTATO CROP AND MODELING
6 • 3/21/11
As the fourth most important crop after rice, wheat and maize,
potato is an important source of income for many farmers in Peru.
Genetic Resources
Management CHALLENGES:
Integrated Pest and
Disease 1. Pest and Disease (FAO, 2008) emergence of
new and more aggressive populations
Crop Management 2. Planting dates : Increased temperature, bad
weather conditions, is changing the height at
Soils which it is sown.
3. Extreme events: Frost, drought and high
Environmental rainfall. Change in growing season.
Conditions 4. Native potato: reduction of biodiversity,
genetic erosion
5. increase (CO2): Physiological changes in the
plant.

7. CROP MODEL : SOLANUM
7 • 3/21/11
SOLANUM model is a modification LINTUL-POTATO
model (Spitters, 1988 and 1990; Kooman, 1995 and
Kraalingen, 1994), which was validated in the Andes
(Condon et al., 2009). The model consists of a set of
equations, using potato crop parameters under certain
environmental conditions simulating crop development.
Unica
Canchan

8. WEATHER DATA
8 • 3/21/11
Espectrogramas de los valores del Índice de Precipitación estandarizado (SPI) a escala de 6 meses (SPI-6) y 12
(SPI-12) meses para la estación de Huancayo.
20
17
Temperatura (°C)
14
Temperatura máxima y mínima
11
-Cajamarca-
8
5
2
DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR
Campaña Agricola
Tmax-2009 Tmin-2009 Tmax-2010 Tmin-2010

9. CROP YIELD FORECASTING
9 • 3/21/11
50
c. Huancayo: Variedad Unica (2009-10)
45
40
Rendimiento (tns/Ha)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1 2
Repeticiones 3 4
Rdto. Observado Promedio Obs.
Simulado SOLANUM Simulado ETA

10. Expert System based on biological and etnometeorological
10 • 3/21/11
indicators related to ancestral climate perceptions
“En estos años el calor es mas intenso y
las heladas de noche son mas crueles
que nunca. Nosotros no usamos químicos
y estamos más expuestos a las plagas, a
la mosca y a los hongos. En nuestra
chacra hace demasiado calor para la
papa”.
Testimonio. PISAC, CUSCO (2008)
“Este año nos ha traído mucha
preocupación. El frío se ha llevado las
sonrisas de los niños, que todo el tiempo
sufren de problemas respiratorios. No
hemos podido sembrar nuestra papita
amarga y estamos viendo muy poca lluvia
desde hace años.”
Testimonio. ANDARAY, AREQUIPA (2008).

11. 11 • 3/21/11
B
E
FRIJOL
A FEIJÃO
N

12. BEAN CROP AND MODELING
12 • 3/21/11
(Phaseolus vulgaris L.)
The bean provides an important source of protein and essential micronutrients in
diets, too, is an important source of income for small farmers.
CHALLENGES::
1. Pest and Disease (Beebe et al., 2000) high
temperatures and relative humidity.
2. Effect of photoperiod : Longer days, causing
delay in flowering and maturity (Salisbury y
Ross ,1994).
3. Drought and heavy rains : Floral abscission
due to high rainfall (White, 2002).
• Genotype (resistant or susceptible)
• Soils
• Agronomic management
• Planting time
• Environmental conditions

13. MODELO: CROPGRO – BEAN DDSAT
13 • 3/21/11
Sistema de Apoyo para la Toma de Decisiones en la
Transferencia Agro tecnológica
To run the model,
standard climate file
(*. WTH). The
minimum data
required are DDSAT
radiation, maximum
temperature,
minimum and
precipitation ..

14. WEATHER DATA
14 • 3/21/11
Espectrogramas de los valores del Índice de Precipitación estandarizado (SPI) a escala de 3 (SPI-3) y 6
(SPI-6) meses para la estación de a. Palmira y, b. Popayán.
26 32
Temperatura (°C). Palmira
25 31
24 30
29
23
28
22
27
21
26
20
25
19 24
18 23
17 22
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
Temperatura Minima Temperatura Maxima
Serie temporal temperatura máxima y mínima de las localidad de Palmira

15. Simulations of crop yield
15 • 3/21/11

16. Modelo de simulación Eta escenario futuro A1B
16 • 3/21/11
(2030 - 2040)
180
Precipitacion promedio mensual: Palmira
150
Precipitacion mensual (mm)
120
90
60
30
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
prec_aexsb prec_aexsm prec_aexso
prec_cntrl Observ. Escenario Futuro
Simulación de rendimiento con Eta

17. Modelo de simulación Eta escenario futuro A1B
17 • 3/21/11
(2030 - 2040)
180
Precipitacion promedio mensual: Palmira
150
Precipitacion mensual (mm)
120
90
60
30
“El riesgo se refiere a una probabilidad, de que un sistema considerado
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
importante por una unidad social resulte afectada en cierto grado por un
determinado evento con cierta intensidad.
prec_aexsb prec_aexsm prec_aexso
prec_cntrl Observ. Escenario Futuro
Riesgo: Impacto potencial que puede sufrir un sistema de referencia como
resultado de la acción de un evento amenazante”
Simulación de rendimiento con Eta
Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT).