AFC Vietnam Fund presentation 2013.12.02 (Asia Frontier Capital Ltd.)
1. AFC Vietnam Fund
AFC Asia Frontier Fund
December 2013
September 2013
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
2. Most new funds are launched when markets are “hot” and close to their highs
We see opportunities as the market & economy are at the bottom
Viet Capital - Hanoi Index 2006 – Oct. 2013
AFC Vietnam Fund
2
CONFIDENTIAL
3. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary
4
Why Vietnam
5
AFC Vietnam Fund
17
Directors & Shareholders
18
Investment Strategy
22
Contact Information
24
Disclaimer
25
Appendix
26
AFC Vietnam Fund
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CONFIDENTIAL
4. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fund Objective
• Capture the value of growth companies in Vietnam; especially in the small to medium size
company segment
Opportunity
• Vietnams GDP growth is accelerating again since H2 2013
• Declining interest rates and improvement in credit growth helps business expansion
• Banking reform is under way, such as e.g. the resolution for NPL’s
Potential
• We believe to achieve a significant capital appreciation of its newly launched fund for at
least the next 5 - 7 years.
AFC Vietnam Fund
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5. WHY VIETNAM
Vietnam’s Low Correlation to Global Markets
offers significant Diversification Benefits
Correlation with the MSCI World Index
0.82
0.88
0.63
0.35
VH Index
(Hanoi)
0.40
VN Index (Ho MSCI Frontier
Chi Minh)
Markets
MSCI BRIC
MSCI
Emerging
Markets
Bloomberg . *Based on 10 years monthly data
AFC Asia Frontier Fund
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6. WHY VIETNAM
A Land of Opportunities
Valuations
• Vietnam’s overall valuation looks extremely compelling versus its regional peers, but listed
“Small/Medium Caps” offer outstanding value
• Reaching the old highs in the next economic and stock market cycle would mean a potential
of several hundred per cent, supported by fundamentals
Growth Prospects
• Very competitive labour costs, but rising individual wealth at CAGR 13.50% over the past 10
years
• High foreign remittances, capital account surplus, trade account neutral
• FDI reached USD 9.6bn in October, or 87% of 2013 plan of USD 11bn
AFC Vietnam Fund
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7. WHY VIETNAM
Strong Fundamentals will Support Growth
Sustainable GDP Growth
• GDP is accelerating again in 2013, after declining from 8.5% (2007) to 5% (2012)
Competitive Labour Costs
• Low wages with increasing productivity and improvements in human capital
Inflation under Control
• The government managed to successfully manage inflation at an expected rate of 7% in
2013 (recent high in 2008 at 19.9%)
Interest Rates Came Down
• Average lending rate came down from over 20% (2011) to around 13% (2013)
Improving Trade Balance
• Trade balance improved from USD -18bn (2008) to USD -0.2bn (f) 2013
Foreign Reserves Increasing
• Foreign reserves increased from USD 12.5bn (2010) to USD 32bn (f) 2013
Stable Currency for the past 2 Years
AFC Vietnam Fund
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8. WHY VIETNAM
Competitive Labour Costs and Increasingly Educated Population
Average Monthly Salary (USD)
4,964
3,989 3,934
1,889
817
473 434 285 206
117 105
Worldbank
AFC Vietnam Fund
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9. WHY VIETNAM
Compelling Valuations
* AFC Vietnam Fund
** Vietnam
Thailand
Indonesia
Singapore
Malaysia
Philippines
P/E
Dividend
2013
Yield
6.0x
9.1%
10.8x
3.9%
12.7x
3.3%
13.6x
2.4%
13.9x
3.7%
16.1x
3.3%
17.2x
2.4%
P/B
0.96x
1.74x
2.18x
2.48x
1.40x
2.35x
2.69x
YTD
Perform.
71.0%
17.4%
1.4%
1.9%
0.8%
7.0%
7.8%
* AFC VF Model Portfolio as of 20 Nov 2013
** Ho Chi Minh 22% / Hanoi 12.7%
Bloomberg
AFC Vietnam Fund
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10. WHY VIETNAM
Increasing Foreign Reserves will Support Currency & Balance of Payments
90%
Foreign Reserves in % of External
Debt
Foreign Reserves (USD bn)
23.5
2008
2009
13.4
44%
25%
23%
2010
2011
6.2
2012
2013 (f)
23.6
16.5
54%
50%
23.9
7
12.5
13.5
9.1
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(f)
Worldbank
AFC Vietnam Fund
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11. WHY VIETNAM
Improving Business Environment
Restructuring of the Banking Sector
• State Asset Management Company to take over NPL’s from Banks
• Consolidation of Banks / M&A Activities
• Potential increase of Foreign Ownership Limit
• Improving Banking Regulatory Framework
• Better Supervision and Severe Punishment of Banking Misconduct
Government to Support Economic Recovery
• Lower Lending Rates
• Tax Cuts for Individuals and Corporates
• Stimulus Packages for various Industry Sectors
• Restructuring of SOE’s
AFC Vietnam Fund
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12. WHY VIETNAM
Improving Business Environment
Strong Foreign Investments into Manufacturing (Samsung alone ~USD 5bn)
Key Sectors: Electronics, Textile and Energy
TPP Free Trade Agreement and ASEAN 2015 will Kick-Start Economy
Political Stability
Main Risks
• Resurgence of inflation and depreciation cycle, external economic or political shocks
• Vietnam is still at the very beginning of its various regulatory and government reforms
and still a lot needs to be done.
AFC Vietnam Fund
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13. WHY VIETNAM
Stable Political Environment
90
88
World Bank 2011 Political Stability Ranking
52
52
47
46
33
25
AFC Vietnam Fund
13
21
17
14
13
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14. WHY VIETNAM
Low Market Cap/GDP relative to Asian Markets
Market Cap in % of GDP
151%
105%
157%
106%
85%
44%
45%
55%
62%
69%
23%
Worldbank 2012
AFC Vietnam Fund
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15. WHY VIETNAM
Stock Market Information
Number of listed companies
642
Sector Breakdown Aug 2013
696
702
737
Insurance
5%
455
27
Banks
24%
Material
7%
342
195
Others
13%
245
Real Estate
7%
42
Energy
19%
Food & Beverages
25%
Bloomberg
AFC Vietnam Fund
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16. WHY VIETNAM
MSCI Emerging Market Index, 1973 - 2013
1600
1400
1200
Ho Chi Minh Index, 2002 - 2013
Vietnam is at the very
beginning of a long term
capital growth trend
1000
800
600
400
200
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
Bloomberg / Viet Capital
AFC Vietnam Fund
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17. AFC VIETNAM FUND
Target Fund Size:
Legal Structure:
Style:
Domicile:
Initial Minimum Investment:
Launch Date:
Subscription Frequency:
Redemption:
Fees:
High Water Mark:
Auditor:
Legal Advisor:
Custodian:
Fund Administrator:
Investment Manager:
AFC Vietnam Fund
USD 50 million
Open End
Value / Growth
Cayman Islands
USD 10,000 / USD 1,000 subsequent purchases
10 December 2013
Monthly, 5 business days before end of month
Monthly, 60 days prior notice
Management: 1.8% p.a. of NAV
Performance: 12.5% p.a. of NAV appreciation
Yes (performance fee only applies to net profits)
KPMG, Cayman Islands
Ogier, Hong Kong
Viet Capital Securities, Ho Chi Minh
Amicorp Fund Services Asia Pte Ltd., Singapore
Asia Frontier Capital (Vietnam) Ltd., Cayman Islands
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CONFIDENTIAL
18. DIRECTOR & SHAREHOLDER OF ASIA FRONTIER CAPITAL (VIETNAM) LTD.
Andreas Karall, CIO of AFC Vietnam Fund, brings with him 25
years of experience in fund and portfolio management. He managed
several public and private funds for various banks and fund managers in
Europe. In the early part of his career he was the CEO of a small fund
and portfolio management company in Vienna. That was around the
time when he developed an affinity for Asian markets and he started to
closely follow and invest in them. He is constantly looking for attractive
investment opportunities, especially when they arise shortly after an
economic crisis or political turmoil. He successfully invested in the Hong
Kong stock market after the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989, in
Finland after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union and in Asian markets
after the 1997 Asian crisis. He sold most positions for his clients in 2007
and therefore escaped the financial crisis almost unscathed and was able
to reinvest at bargain prices in 2008/2009. After Vietnamese stock
market correction of over 70%, Andy is now ready and excited to get
involved!
AFC Vietnam Fund
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19. DIRECTOR & SHAREHOLDER OF ASIA FRONTIER CAPITAL (VIETNAM) LTD.
Andreas Vogelsanger, CEO / Head Marketing of AFC Vietnam
Fund, has over 25 years of wide-ranging experience with leading
institutions in the finance industry. Prior to joining AFC Vietnam Fund
Andreas was a Founding Partner and Chairman of a small corporate
finance boutique in Bangkok and he worked for top-level investment
banks, hedge funds and private banks in Zurich, Geneva, London, Hong
Kong and Singapore. He is passionate in finding the best value solutions
for clients in tailoring an optimal investment proposition.
Andreas was awarded an AMP diploma from Wharton Business School,
University of Pennsylvania and he also holds CEFA (Certified European
Financial Analyst and Portfolio Manager) and FRM (Financial Risk
Manager) diplomas.
AFC Vietnam Fund
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20. DIRECTOR OF ASIA FRONTIER CAPITAL (VIETNAM) LTD.
Thomas Hugger, COO of AFC Vietnam Fund and Founder of
Asia Frontier Capital, has spent 27 years in private banking where he
specialized in managing portfolios of listed and unlisted equities. He has
been investing in Asian and African Frontier Markets since 1993. He is
the former Managing Partner, CFO & COO of Leopard Capital; and was
previously a Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management at
LGT Bank in Hong Kong. He also held senior investment positions at Bank
Julius Baer in Zurich and Hong Kong. Mr. Hugger was the founding
shareholder of one of the largest brokerage companies in Bangladesh.
He is also a Certified Financial Investment Analyst (CFIA) and Investment
Adviser (Switzerland) and a Certified European Federation of Financial
Analysts Societies (EFFAS) Financial Analyst.
AFC Vietnam Fund
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CONFIDENTIAL
21. SHAREHOLDER OF ASIA FRONTIER CAPITAL LTD.
Dr Marc Faber, is CEO, investment advisor and fund manager of Marc
Faber Limited. He is the publisher of a widely read monthly investment
newsletter The Gloom, Boom and Doom report which highlights global
investment opportunities. Dr. Faber is respected around the world for
his market forecasts over the past three decades.
Hon. Andrew Fraser, Director, is a graduate of St John's College,
Oxford after which he held numerous posts in the financial sector both
in the City of London and elsewhere. He has previously held positions as;
CEO of Baring Securities in the UK, Chairman of Equity Partners Ltd., a
Bangladesh investment bank, as well as Chairman of Bridge Securities, a
quoted Korean company, amongst other posts. At present he is a global
investor based in London.
AFC Vietnam Fund
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CONFIDENTIAL
22. INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Value Based Bottom Up Stock Selection
• In-house and third party research to identify undervalued companies
• Self-developed Valuation & Earnings model
• Company visits
Risk Mitigation
• In-depth due diligence of investment opportunities
• The fund is well diversified and typically invests in 40 to 60 stocks across various sectors
• Investment limit per position max 9% with top-slicing at 19%
Cash
• Not fully invested in uncertain times and/or excessive valuations
• Holding cash will allow the fund to take advantage of opportunistic investments when they
arise (momentum / news driven)
AFC Vietnam Fund
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CONFIDENTIAL
23. INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Example of Typical Equity Investments
Hanoi Beer
Hanoi Education Develop. & Invest.
Son La Sugar
Bao Viet Securities
PetroVietnam Technical Services
Market Cap
USD (m)
5
9
10
38
383
P/E
P/B
6.9x
5.3x
3.6x
8.1x
6.2x
Div Yield
1.2
0.8
1.0
0.7
1.0
8.1%
10.9%
12.4%
0.0%
8.3%
Pay Out
Sector
Ratio
50%
Consumer Goods
66%
Consumer Services
34%
Consumer Goods
0%
Financials
40%
Oil & Gas
Model Portfolio Sector Weightings
Infrastructure
Consumer Goods
Technology
Real Estate
Construction & Materials
Oil & Gas / Energy
AFC Vietnam Fund
8%
Health Care
28%
Financials
6%
Agriculture
2%
Education
12% Transportation & Logistics
5%
Textiles
23
5%
5%
9%
8%
9%
3%
CONFIDENTIAL
24. CONTACT INFORMATION
ASIA FRONTIER CAPITAL (Vietnam) LTD.
c/o Ogier Fiduciary Services (Cayman) Ltd.
89 Nexus Way
Camana Bay
Grand Cayman KY1-9007
Cayman Islands
Tel:
+852 3904 1015
Fax:
+852 3904 1017
Email: vietnam@asiafrontiercapital.com
Investment Enquiries:
Andreas Vogelsanger
Mobile: +66 84435 7472
Email: av@asiafrontiercapital.com
Skype: andreasvogelsanger
AFC Vietnam Fund
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CONFIDENTIAL
25. DISCLAIMER
This Presentation is presented solely for purposes of discussion to assist prospective investors in determining whether they have a preliminary interest in the investment opportunity described herein. Under no
circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security or other interest in AFC Vietnam Fund, AFC Asia Frontier Fund, AFC Umbrella Fund or any other fund
related thereto (the “Fund”). Offers and sales of interests in the Fund will not be registered under the laws of any jurisdiction and will be made solely to qualified investors under all applicable laws. Potential investors
must read the entire Offering Memorandum delivered by the Fund and the disclosure in this Subscription Agreement. Nothing contained herein shall be deemed to be binding against, or to create any obligations or
commitment on the part of, any potential investor or the Asia Frontier Capital (the “Fund Sponsors”). The Fund Sponsors reserve the right, in their sole and absolute discretion with or without notice, to alter the
terms or conditions of this Presentation and the Fund and/or to alter or terminate the potential investment opportunity described herein. Potential investors are not to construe this Presentation as investment, legal
or tax advice. Prior to making any potential investment, potential investors should consult with their own legal, investment, accounting, regulatory, tax and other advisors to determine the consequences of the
potential investment opportunity described herein and to arrive at an independent evaluation of such potential investment opportunity.
By accepting this Presentation, the recipient agrees not to copy, distribute, discuss or otherwise disclose this Presentation or the contents hereof (including the potential investment opportunity described) or any
other related information provided by the Fund Sponsors or by its agents to any person other than employees of recipient evaluating this potential investment opportunity on recipient’s behalf without the prior
written consent of the Fund Sponsors.
While the information contained herein has been obtained from various sources which the Fund Sponsors believe, but does not guarantee, to be reliable, the Fund Sponsors do not represent that it is accurate or
complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No person has been authorized to give any information or make any representation or warranty regarding the subject matter hereof, either express or implied, and,
if given or made in this Presentation, in other materials or verbally, such information, representation or warranty cannot and should not be relied upon nor is any representation or warranty made as to the accuracy,
content, suitability or completeness of the information, analysis or conclusions or any information furnished in connection herewith contained in this Presentation and it is not to be relied upon as a substitute for
independent review of the underlying documents, available due diligence information and such other information as prospective investors may deem appropriate or prudent to review. The Fund Sponsors, their
agents, their respective affiliates, and each of their respective shareholders, members, officers, directors, managers, employees, counsel, advisors, consultants and agents (“Representatives”), expressly disclaim any
and all liability for express or implied representations or warranties that may be contained in, or for omissions from or inaccuracies in, this Presentation or any other oral or written communication transmitted or
made available to a prospective investor or its Representatives. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, nothing contained herein is or shall be relied upon as a promise or representation as to any matter,
including, without limitation, the future performance of the potential investment opportunity described herein. None of the Fund Sponsors, their agents, or their respective Representatives is under any obligation to
correct any inaccuracies or omissions in this Presentation. Each prospective investor will have the sole responsibility for verifying the accuracy of all information furnished in this Presentation and in any other due
diligence information furnished to a prospective investor, and each prospective investor shall have the sole responsibility for determining the value of the potential investment based on assumptions said prospective
investor believes to be reasonable. Representatives will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities, referred to in this document. There shall be no recourse
against the Fund Sponsors or any of their Representatives in the event of any errors or omissions in the information furnished, the methodology used, the calculations of values or conclusions. Without limiting the
generality of the foregoing, any historical information or information based on past performance included herein is for informational purposes only, has inherent limitations and is not intended to be a
representation, warranty or guarantee of future performance. All of the information presented herein is subject to change without notice. Actual returns to potential investors may be lower than the figures shown
herein. Projected performance data shown constitutes “forward-looking information” which is based on numerous assumptions and is speculative in nature. Actual results may vary significantly from the values and
rates of return projected herein. There can no assurance that the Fund will realize its rate of return objectives or return of investors’ capital. Potential investors should have the financial ability and willingness to
accept the risks (including without limitation the risk of loss and lack of liquidity) characteristic of investments in entities such as the Fund.
AN INVESTMENT IN THE FUND WILL NOT BE APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. INTERESTS IN THE FUND WILL INVOLVE A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK AND ARE INTENDED FOR SALE ONLY TO SOPHISTICATED INVESTORS
WHO ARE CAPABLE OF UNDERSTANDING AND ASSUMING THE RISKS INVOLVED. INVESTORS MAY LOSE ALL OR SUBSTANTIALLY ALL OF THEIR INVESTMENT.
THE INTERESTS IN THE FUND HAVE NOT BEEN REGISTERED UNDER THE U.S. SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED (THE “SECURITIES ACT”), OR THE APPLICABLE SECURITIES LAWS OF ANY US. STATE OR ANY NON-U.S.
JURISDICTION, AND ARE BEING OFFERED AND SOLD IN RELIANCE ON EXEMPTIONS FROM THE REGISTRATION REQUIREMENTS OF THE SECURITIES ACT AND ANY SUCH APPLICABLE LAWS. INTERESTS IN THE FUND HAVE
NOT BEEN APPROVED OR DISAPPROVED BY THE US. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION OR BY THE SECURITIES REGULATORY AUTHORITY OF ANY STATE OR ANY OTHER RELEVANT JURISDICTION, NOR HAS ANY
OTHER AUTHORITY OR COMMISSION PASSED UPON THE ACCURACY OR ADEQUACY OF THIS MEMORANDUM. ANY REPRESENTATION TO THE CONTRARY IS UNLAWFUL.
AFC Vietnam Fund
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27. AFC VIETNAM FUND
AFC Umbrella Fund (non
US), Cayman Islands *
AFC Vietnam Fund
KPMG
Amicorp
Auditor
Fund Administrator
Ogier Hong Kong
Asia Frontier Capital
(Vietnam)Ltd. **
Legal Advisor
Investment Manager
Asia Frontier Investments Ltd.
(licensed by SFC Hong Kong)***
Investment Advisor
AFC VF Ltd. ****
Investment Firm
Viet Capital Securities
Custodian
*
**
***
****
Directors: Thomas Hugger, Andrew Fraser, Asadul Islam
Directors: Thomas Hugger, Andreas Vogelsanger, Andy Karall
Directors: Thomas Hugger, Andreas Vogelsanger, Peter de Vries, Asadul Islam
Directors: Thomas Hugger, Andreas Vogelsanger, Andy Karall
AFC Vietnam Fund
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28. WHY VIETNAM
Ho Chi Minh Index – 4 Years of Consolidation
Viet Capital
AFC Vietnam Fund
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29. WHY VIETNAM
Healthcare Demand
2012 Regional healthcare expenditure
per capital (USD)
Healthcare expenditure per capita
(current USD)
2,447
95
70
79
83
2009
2010
100
58
25
516
95
100
112
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
31
37
47
226
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2011
Worldbank
AFC Vietnam Fund
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2012
30. WHY VIETNAM
Mobile/Internet Consumer Trends
Internet users (per 100 people)
Regional internet users (per 100 people) 2012
39
35
31
24
27
17
13
27
8
4
2003
2004
74
66
21
36
39
Philippines
Vietnam
15
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Indonesia
Mobile subscriptions (per 100 people)
143
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Regional mobile subscriptions (per 100 people)
2012
149
127
113
87
107
115
120
Philippines
Indonesia
Thailand
53
3
6
12
2004
2005
2006
149
153
Malaysia
Vietnam
Singapore
22
2003
141
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Worldbank
AFC Vietnam Fund
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31. WHY VIETNAM
GDP per Capita Accelerating
GDP per capita (current USD)
1,596
1,408
1,224
1,130
1,070
230
492
402 416 441
361 361 374
288 337
558
642
731
843
Worldbank
AFC Vietnam Fund
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CONFIDENTIAL
32. WHY VIETNAM
Regional GDP per Capita
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
China
Indonesia
Vietnam
Cambodia
Burma
GDP per
Capita (USD)
61,104
16,536
9,432
9,060
4,812
3,444
2,364
1,400
Population
(m)
5
30
67
1,357
249
90
15
62
World Bank 2012 - based on Purchasing Power Parity
AFC Vietnam Fund
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