Presentación Peruvian Hydropower Potencial - World Bank

1. Peru - Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Eduardo Zolezzi David Menéndez Arán
WB Consultant Halcrow
Washington DC, March 14, 2011
World Bank – Energy Week 2011
Sustainable Energy: Low Carbon, Access and Governance

2. Peru – The Long Path to Hydropower Development
1973: the “First” Evaluation of
Hydropower Potential (German
Technical Assistance)
2008, 2009: ESMAP Studies
Hydropower Development
Framework and Barriers
2011: New Evaluation of
Hydropower Potential (Peru
RE Project – WB Financing)

3. Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Contents
Context (Motivation)
Basic Data and Processing
Hydrological Modeling and Processing
Hydropower Potential
Best 100 Potential Small, Mid-Sized Hydro Plants
Products: Hydropower Atlas, Web HidroGIS

4. Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Context (Motivation)

5. World Hydropower Potential

6. South America Hydropower Potential
PERU
2nd in SA in Potential and
6th in the World
7th in SA in Inst. Capacity

7. The Challenge
PERU - Satellite
Digital Terrain
Model

8. Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Basic Data and Processing

9. Elevation (Topographic) Data
1:100,00 Maps of the National Geographic Institute SRTM (NASA) Satellite Digital Terrain Data

10. Digital Terrain Model (1)

11. Digital Terrain Model (2)

12. Precipitation Data
Basic Data: 457 original, plus 155
additional, recordings from
SENAMHI stations; TRMM
(NASA) data; and FAO Cleanwat
2.0 (2006).
Results: 472 consolidated/
processed recordings.

13. Temperature Data
Basic Data: 264 original, plus 70
additional, recordings from
SENAMHI stations; FAO Cleanwat
2.0 (2006); GHCN data (NOOA);
and RETScreen weather data.
Results: 265 consolidated/
processed recordings.

14. Stream Flow Data
Basic Data: 144 original, plus 58
additional, recordings from
SENAMHI stations; 279 original
recordings from ANA Peru and 30
recordings from ANA Brazil; and
14 recordings from INRENA Peru.
Results: 187 consolidated/
processed stream flow recordings
of more than 5 years duration, in
the period 1970-2010.

15. SENAMHI Basic Data Availability
Ene-70
Ene-72
Ene-74
Ene-76
Ene-78
Ene-80
Ene-82
Ene-84
Ene-86
Ene-88
Ene-90
Ene-92
Ene-94
Ene-96
Ene-98
Ene-00
Ene-02
Ene-04
Ene-06
Ene-08
Disponibilidad
de datos
Región 6
Precipitación, Caudal
y Temperatura
Precipitación
Caudal
Temperatura
Water Flow
Temperature
Precipitation
Region 6

16. Vegetation and Soil Type Data

17. Hydrographic Characteristics of Watersheds
Catchments
Delination Water Flow
Directions
Water Flow
Accumulations Processed
Hydrography

18. Physical Characteristics of Watersheds

19. Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Hydrological Modeling and Processing

20. Processing of Hydrology & Weather Data
20
10
0
Jan-10Jan-00Jan-90Jan-80Jan-70 Jan-10Jan-00Jan-90Jan-80Jan-70
20
10
0
Jan-10Jan-00Jan-90Jan-80Jan-70
20
10
0
Jan-10Jan-00Jan-90Jan-80Jan-70
PA MPA BLA NC A
Temperatura(°C)
C A RUMA S C A NDA RA V E C A BA NA C O NDE
C A MA NA EL FRA YLE PA UZA SA N C A MILO
PA MPA GA LERA S PUQ UIO BUENA V ISTA HUA RO C HIRI
Temperatura
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-06Jan-94Jan-82Jan-70
400
300
200
100
0
300
200
100
0
Jan-06Jan-94Jan-82Jan-70
300
200
100
0
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-06Jan-94Jan-82Jan-70
300
200
100
0
Curahuasi
Preicipitación(mm)
Chilcayoc Pisac
Acomayo Urubamba Granja Kcayra
Precipitación Enero
EDA
Time series analysis
Double mass analysis,
Regional accumulations
Analysis of seasonal and
inter-annual variations
Analysis of atypical values
Correlations analysis
Continuity analysis
Statistics (X, S, CV, CS)

21. Processing of Hydrological Data
Región 2: Caudal Medio Mensual
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sep Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago
Mes
Caudal(m3/s)
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
Caudal(m3/s)
Dique Los Espanoles
MARIA PEREZ (ANA2)
Salamanca
Aguada Blanca (ANA)
El Frayle (ANA)
Sumbay
Tingo Grande
Huatiapa
Negropampa (D)
PALLCA-HUARURO
(ANA2)
Puente Carretera Camana
Puente Colgante-Sibayo
Charcani
Region 2: Average Monthly Water Flow
Región 2: Curvas de permanencia
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
% de tiempo superado
Q%/Qa
Chucarapi
Huatiapa
MARIA PEREZ
Negropampa
PALLCA-HUARURO
Puente Carretera Camana
Puente Colgante-Sibayo
Salamanca
Aguada Blanca
Charcani
Sumbay
Tingo Grande
Promedio Region 2
Altura : 20-4500 msnm
Área: 60-17000 km
2
Region 2: Water Flow Duration Curves
Hydrological Regions

22. Hydrological (& Related) Processed Data
Average Annual Precipitation Specific Flow
Annual Evapo-Transpiration

23. Regression Formulae for Regional Hydrology
Qmedio = Average Water Flow
Area = Watershed Area
Pm = Average precipitation
Dd = Drainage surface density
S1085 = Slope index
With Most Significant Coefficients

24. Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Hydropower Potential

25. Qi
Qi+1
Hi
zi
TRAMO i
zi+1
i
i+1
Li (1)
Qi, Zi , Ai
Qi+1, Zi+1, Ai+1Nodo creado
automáticamente
Nodo Intermedio
Li (2)
Li (2.1)
Li (2.2)
Determination of Hydropower Potential (Theoretical)
If L < 5 km, then Li=L
If L > 5 km, then Li=L/2
i: Upstream node
i+1: Downstream node
Ai [km2
]: Drain area at node i
Zi [m]: Elevation of upstream node
Li: Length of river reach at node i
( )2/)( 1 iiiiiiTOTAL HQQHQgPPHT ⋅−+⋅⋅== +∑∑
Qi [m3
/s]: Water flow at node i
Qi+1 [m3
/s]: Water flow at node i+1
Hi [m]: Difference of elevation [Zi – Zi+1]
between nodes i and i+1

26. Theoretical Hydropower Potential
PTheoretical = 270,371 MW
PUseable = 170,009 MW

27. Theoretical Hydropower Potential

28. Determination of Hydropower Potential (Technical)
g: Gravity constant
η: Efficiency
Hi [m]: Difference of elevation [Zi – Zi+1]
between nodes i and i+1
Qi [m3
/s]: Water flow at node i
Penstock
Power House
Intake
Restitution
TecP g Hi Qiη= ⋅ ⋅ ⋅
Electromechanical Costs (Ce): f(PTec) [Water Power – 2009]
Penstock Costs (Cp): f(Qturb, Hi, LPenstock) [RETScreen – 2006]
Civil Works Costs (Cc): f (Qturb, PTec, Hi) [RETScreen – 2006]

29. Cost – Benefit Index (ICB)
TAC
ICB
E
=
3
10TA TecC C FRC P COM= ⋅ + ⋅ ⋅
24 365TecE P Fu= ⋅ ⋅ ⋅
E: Annual average generated energy
PTec: Technical hydropower potential
Fu: Utilization factor
24 x 365: Number of hours in a year
CTA: Annuity of total investment
C: Total investment amount
PTec: Technical hydropower potential
COM: O & M costs
FRC: Capital recuperation factor
i: interest rate
n: useful life
0.3716
40,7COM P−
= ⋅
( )
( )
1
1 1
n
n
i i
FRC
i
⋅ +
=
+ −

30. Determination of Technical Hydropower Potential

31. Determination of Technical Hydropower Potential
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0
Costo/PINST[US$/KW]
PINST [MW]
Costo/PINST0
20
40
60
80
100
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0
ICB[US$/MWh]
PINST [MW]
Costo/Beneficio (ICB)
CUR = 60 US$/MWh
Pmin

32. Technical & Economic Hydropower Potential
PTechnical = 114,816 MW
PTech. Useable = 69,445 MW

33. Technical & Economic Hydropower Potential

34. 8350000
8400000
8450000
8500000
8550000
8600000
900000 950000 1000000 1050000 1100000 1150000
y
x
Potencial HidroeléctricoTécnico
0 MW < Ptécnico< 1 MW
1 MW <Ptécnico< 10 MW
10 MW <Ptécnico< 20 MW
20 MW <Ptécnico< 50 MW
50 MW <Ptécnico< 100 MW
Ptécnico> 100 MW
Technical Potential of Inambari Watershed

35. Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Best 100 Potential Small, Mid-Sized Hydro Plants
(1 < P < 100 MW)

36. Multi-Criteria for Merit Order
Multi-Criteria Matrix
Economic [ ]
Environmental [ ]
Other Criteria [ ]
Cost/Benefit Index (ICB) [wec1]
Net Present Value [wec2]
Internal Rate of Return [wec3]
Length of affected river reach [wen1]
Number of downstream tributaries [wen2]
Length of access roads [wen3]
Basic data availability [wo1]
Distance to existing electricity network [wo2]
Development of areas of interest [wo3]
ecP
enP
oP
Weight of Indexes in
First Scheme
= 0.8
wec1 = 1.0
= 0.2
wen1 = 0.6
wen2 = 0.4
ecP
enP Weight of Indexes in
Second Scheme
= 0.6 wen1 = 0.2
wec2 = 0.5 wen2 = 0.2
wec3 = 0.5 wen3 = 0.1
( + ) = 0.4
wo1 = 0.3 wo2 = 0.2
ecP
enP oP

37. (Sample of) Best 100 with Multi-Criteria

38. Location of Best 100 Potential Developments
1 MW < Pinst < 20 MW
Pinst > 20 MW

39. Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Products

40. Hydropower Potential Atlas

41. Web HidroGIS (1)
http://sigfoner.minem.gob.pe/hidro

42. Web HidroGIS (2)

43. How to Develop (Soundly) the Peruvian Amazon
Hydropower Potential?
River Inambari Watershed: Technical Useable Hydropower Potential: 8,870 MW

44. Thank You Very Much For Your Attention
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