14. Datos Cálculos empíricos Valores Atípicos Estadísticas vitales 3549 77 Sistemas de registro muestrearías 53 1 Historias de parto completas 1447 8 Historias de parto sumarias 9870 685 Muertes ocurridas en el hogar 62 17 Encuestas por país 10 5 Puntos de vigilancia de enfermedades 12 0 Base de datos original de Murray, Laakso, Shibuya et al 1075 241 Informes y publicaciones 96 0 Total 16174 1034
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16. Validez predictiva del modelo recién nacido, posneonatal e infantil Diseño Edad Error relativo promedio Error relativo mediano En la muestra Neonatal 9.3% 6.2% Posneonatal 10.9% 8.0% Infantil 11.4% 7.8% Eliminando 20% de los datos Neonatal 9.8% 6.7% Posneonatal 11.8% 8.7% Infantil 11.9% 8.1% Eliminando 20% de los países Neonatal 11.4% 7.1% Posneonatal 12.9% 9.1% Infantil 14.3% 8.9% Eliminando los últimos 10 años Neonatal 14.4% 11.4% Posneonatal 21.0% 15.1% Infantil 19.2% 13.3%
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18. Búsqueda sistemática de literatura publicada oficial y encuestas Rajaratnam et al, Lancet 2010
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21. Las cálculos de la cobertura del registro de mortalidad en adultos Country 1980 1990 2000 2008 Argentina 100% 100% 100% 100% Bolivia 56% 54% 54% 54% Brazil 100% 100% 100% 100% Chile 100% 100% 100% 100% Colombia 100% 97% 95% 96% Costa Rica 100% 100% 100% 100% Ecuador 100% 100% 100% 100% El Salvador 100% 100% 100% 100% Guatemala 100% 100% 100% 100% Mexico 100% 100% 100% 100% Nicaragua 70% 74% 79% 81% Panama 99% 94% 93% 93% Paraguay 85% 81% 81% 82% Peru 81% 78% 75% 74%
The mortality work group successfully published three methods papers in PLoS Medicine in April 2010, exceeding the plans delineated for FY10. The first, Measuring Under-Five Mortality: Validation of New Lost-Cost Methods , describes significantly improved methods for estimating under-five mortality using summary birth histories. It introduces a new model which enables more accurate and timely estimates for child mortality in systems without complete vital registration data, and complete birth history data. This model will also provide more accurate sub-national child mortality estimates when applied to country census data. The second article, What Can We Conclude from Death Registration? Improved Methods for Evaluating Completeness , systematically evaluates the many variants of the standard death distribution methods used to assess completeness of vital registration systems. It presents three variants of the death distribution methods that perform the best in most situations. This newly developed model has been put to use in generating the adult mortality estimates mentioned above. The third paper, Measuring Adult Mortality Using Sibling Survival: A New Analytical Method and New Results for 44 Countries, 1974-2006, presents a new method which improves estimation of mortality rates directly from empirical data sources for many countries. The model produces much more plausible estimates of adult mortality and will be highly applicable to all large nationally representative survey programs.
Mention predictive validity testing
545 surveys with summary birth history microdata or tabulated data 256 surveys with complete birth history microdata DDM on household deaths