Este documento describe cómo modelar la resiliencia al cambio climático evaluando los efectos del microclima en la producción agrícola y el sistema social. Explica la definición de resiliencia y la importancia de entender el sistema interconectado de los sistemas tecnológicos, sociales y ecológicos. Además, propone el uso de modelos basados en agentes para diseñar estrategias de gobernanza adaptativa y control robusto de sistemas complejos e interdependientes.

1. Modeling resilience to climate change: assessing effects of microclimate on agricultural production and the social system
Jacopo A. Baggio
jbaggio@asu.edu or jb80it@gmail.com
Center for the Study of Institutional Diversity
School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Arizona State University

2. Resilience: a definition
Social-Ecological System
Resilience is the ability of a SES to absorb disturbance and re-organize while undergoing change, so as to still retain essentially the same functions, structures, identity and feedbacks
Economics
The ability of a local economy to retain function, employment and prosperity in the face of the perturbation caused by the shock of the loss of a particular type of local industry or employer
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3. Understanding the System
The interplay between technological, social (economic included), and ecological systems is fundamental for an adaptive governance that is able to balance efficiency in the short term with resilience in the long term.
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4. Understanding the System
Uncertainty
Dealing with uncertainty and disturbances in CIS in their present configurations, i.e., maintaining the function of what we have.
Adapting existing systems incrementally/or stepwise? to new types of uncertainty and disturbances
Plan for possibility of transitions/transformations toward new CIS configurations as existing CIS become untenable.
Such transformations are a necessity for shifting toward development pathways that satisfy the performance measures that define the sustainability decision making framework.
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5. Understanding the System
 physica (aisthêsis for the Stoics), i.e.
the study through observation of
perceivable quantities
 (e.g. the five senses)
 logica (logos), or reasoning, thus
formulation of theories
 (e.g. mathematical/computational
models)
 ethica (arètê), or the norms in which
the real system are embedded
 (e.g. values and norms)
 politica (hormê), or dealing with the
actions that shape and are shaped by
the real system
 (e.g. action research)
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Method
Domain
Case Study Experiments Modelling
Model of Values
Empirical Observation
Action
Deductive Reasoning
Deductive
Reasoning
(Logica)
Empirical
Testing
(Physica)
Model of
Values
(Ethica)
Action
(Politica)
Experiments
Case
Studies
Models

6. Governance
“Governance” is a product of a set of interacting infrastructure types, that is
Governance Dynamics is dependent not only on “soft infrastructure” (rules and norms) but also on technological and ecological infrastructures that may constrain options
HERE: How to create adaptive strategies in face of uncertainty in micro-climate?
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7. IAD Framework
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8. Robustness Framework
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9. Robustness Framework
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Connection
Example
Potential Problems
(1) Between resource and resource users
Availability of water at time of need
Too much or too little water
(2) Between users and public infrastructure providers
Voting for providers Contributing resources Recommending policies Monitoring performance of providers
Indeterminacy / lack of participation Free riding Rent seeking Lack of information/free riding
(3) Between public infrastructure providers and public infrastructure
Building initial structure Regular maintenance; Monitoring and enforcing rules
Overcapitalization or undercapitalization; Shirking disrupting temporal and spatial patterns of resource use; Cost / corruption
(4) Between public infrastructure and resource
Impact of infrastructure on the resource level
Ineffective
(5) Between public infrastructure and resource dynamics
Impact of infrastructure on the feedback structure of the resource– harvest dynamics
Ineffective, unintended consequences
(6) Between resource users and public infrastructure
Coproduction of infrastructure itself, maintenance of works, monitoring and sanctioning
No incentives / free riding
(7) External forces on resource and infrastructure
Severe weather, earthquake, landslide, new roads
Destroys resource and infrastructure
(8) External forces on social actors
Major changes in political system, migration, commodity prices, and regulation
Conflict, uncertainty, migration, greatly increased demand

10. Governing Uncertain, Complex Systems: A robust Control Approach
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11. Governing Uncertain, Complex Systems: Agent
Based Modeling For Robust Control
 Behavioral models Based on
Data
 Irrigation Experiment
 Importance of Variables of
Interest
 Comparing Different Model
Alternatives
 Calibrating to Fit the Variables
of Interest
 Sensitivity Analysis
 Scenario Planning
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Setup
(agents initial values)
Agents Investment
Decision
Resource Availability
based on investment
is calculated
Agent 1
Resource Extraction
Decision
Agent 2
Resource Extraction
Decision
Agent 3
Resource Extraction
Decision
Agent 4
Resource Extraction
Decision
Agent 5
Resource Extraction
Decision
Stop?
if Round = 15
YES
Stop
NO
Model Type

12. Governing Uncertain, Complex Systems:
ABM For Robust Control
 Connectivity
Management
 Theoretical
 Manager action =
CONTROLLER
 Comparing Different
Scenario
 Most Robust and
Most Efficient!
 Planning!
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Setup of the
Landscape
Predators and
Prey placement
Density of predators
and prey on patches is
determined
Prey reproduce
and disperse
Predators reproduce,
hunt for prey, disperse
and die naturally
Patches
carrying capacity
is updated
Manager acts
according to specific
strategies
Stop?
if predators or prey are extinct
if time-steps = 4000
Stop
NO
YES

13. More Specifically: Modeling Resilience – Adaptive Governance (Or adaptive decision making)
Biophysical Conditions: microclimate variations, temperature, humidity, precipitation, soil
Attributes of the Community: farmers background, tradition and rules in use
Action Situations: type of crop, trade, insurance, pest prevention and control
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14. Robustness Framework: Visualizing Robust Control of a Complex Interdependent Syustem
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Specifics
Social Infrastructure -> Goals: agricultural production and trade of cacao
Decision making: type of cacao to plant, “insurance scheme”, influencing ecological connectivity
Ecological System: microclimate variations, pest outbreaks, ecological connectivity
Technological Infrastructure: Dam building, potential canals, roads etc.

15. Deliverables
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Assess trade-offs in allocating scares resources between policies
Minimize risk and unintended consequences (i.e. uncertainty) of specific policies
i.e. water resources, agricultural production, infrastructure maintenance and building, monitoring

16. Deliverables
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Type of Controls needed to avoid “social deterioration”
Start to design robust systems able to adapt (flexibility?) to low probability and potentially extreme events
Design adaptation strategies
Prepare for the unexpected???

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