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Régimen post 2012 Una oportunidad estratégica para América Latina....
- 1. Régimen post 2012: Una oportunidad estratégica para América Latina…. …si la aprovechamos Santiago de Chile 18 de junio, 2009 Christiana Figueres
- 2. 4to Informe IPCC: Desviación ya Fuentes: Stern Review 2007, CMCC 2008 Mitigación de 32GtCO2 al 2030 (25% bajo 2000)
- 3. Global 2 4 6 8 10 12 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Annual CO 2 Emissions (GtC) Emisiones en el Norte Emisiones en el Sur Tendrán que contribuir países Norte y Sur 68% reducciones en en el Sur: Ubicación ≠ Pago 46% costo adicional global: Reducciones más costo eficientes en el Sur Fuentes: Stockholm Environment Institute 2007, CMCC 2008
- 4. 1. Estructura será más compleja
- 5. Estructura Protocolo Kioto: imposible post 2012 MDL Norte Sur Metas de reducción Ning ún compromiso de reducción
- 6. Responsabilidad y capacidad traspasa frontera entre N y Sur 25 países 86% PIB 83% GEI 71% Pobl
- 7. Sin compromiso de reducción (ofertando al MDL) ¿Incorporación Gradual? TIEMPO RESPONS / CAPACIDAD Umbral ?? Emisiones PIB Población (IDH) Iniciar con varios instrumentos financieros de apoyo L í mites al crecimiento de emisiones Metas de reducci ó n Políticas amigables al clima (ahora con apoyo fin)
- 8. 2. Por el momento, el foco de atención está concentrado
- 10. “ Acciones de mitigación” PAIS MITIGACION México 11-21 mil M ton en CUS; energía 21% reducción bajo 2014 Brasil 10-20% reducción bajo 2004 para 2020 Sur África Pico en 2025; reducción anual 1.6% anual a partir 2030 China 16% ER para 2020; incrementar EE en 20% para 2020
- 13. 3. Apoyo ahora para la transformación
- 16. 4. AL tiene dos opciones
- 19. Opción #2 (ejemplo de Mx y Br)
- 20. Chile Argentina Venezuela Colombia Peru Ecuador Cuba Trin y Tob Rep Dom 6 países 89% PIB 84% GEI 74% Pobl 11 países 95% PIB 93% GEI 86% Pobl Datos 2007 World Resources Institute Banco Mundial POBL PIB GEI Brasil Mexico 2 países 64% PIB 55% GEI 52% Pobl
Notas del editor
- Let me start with a thought experiment that usefully charts out the nature of the climate challenge. It involves a little bit of science, and little bit of conjecture and a little bit of arithmetic. 1. The blue line is the science. It is what the climate science is telling us our global emissions must do if we want to preserve a reasonable likelihood of keeping below 2c. It is a global emergency pathway, and there is no denying that it is extremely ambitious -- it sees emissions peaking by 2020, and declining 80% by mid-century. Yet, even this Emergency pathway – which would require an unprecedented global mobilization -- implies considerable climate risks -- the probability of exceeding 2c is roughly 20-35%. --- which vastly better than doing nothing, but somehow not tremendously comforting. Bullet 1: 2. The green line is the conjecture. It isn’t far-fetched to suppose that the developed countries will accept their obligation to make very, very ambitious cuts in the North. Suppose, in fact, that they managed to reduce emissions as quickly and deeply as Al Gore, for example, has called for in the US. The green line shows this… 90% (below 1990) by 2050, and extrapolates it across all of the Annex 1 countries rather than just the US. Thus, the green line shows us the portion of the available global carbon budget that the North would consume if it were to follow a very ambitious course of emissions reductions. Bullet 2: 3. If the North managed that… what would it imply in the South? That is the arithmetic. The purple line shows how much of the limited remaining global carbon budget would be consumed by the South. It’s not much. The South would need – somehow – to develop along a path that peaks and declines very, very soon. Indeed, by 2020. And this is precisely the challenge. This is where the tension between climate protection and development comes in. This is where the global climate policy impasse resides. There is some flexibility, but now much at all. The North could perhaps cut emissions by even more than 90% – perhaps, 100% -- reducing to zero emissions by 2050, or even earlier, say 2025. But it wouldn’t change things dramatically in the South, it wouldn’t open up that much more environmental space. Because there’s just not that much more environmental space remaining. And, relaxing the blue pathway – taking yet greater risks of exceeding 2c -- doesn’t really change the picture either, unless you really relax it so much as to give up on stabilizing the climate system. Note: This IS NOT a statement about who is entitled to how much emissions space or who is obligated to reduce how much… It is, merely, a stark illustration of the shared global challenge ahead of us owing to fact that both the carbon budget and time are running out. Bullet 3: And it brings into crisp focus the key climate policy question… What kind of climate regime can enable this to happen…? Deep reductions in the North, hopefully even deeper than shown here. And, the even more challenging part, development in the South along a path that rapidly decarbonizes… with emissions peaking by 2020 and declining by more than 75%. That is the question. And yet, this is only part of the question. The whole question, the deeper question is…
- Source: WRI, CAIT.