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Las generaciones de la guerra: 4GW
- 1. Las “generaciones de la guerra” en el modelo de guerra de cuarta generación Adapatado de www.jaddams.com Blog: http://blogs.periodistadigital.com/redescomplejas.php Guerras libradas: Estados&No-estado Guerra entreEstados& No-estados 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Objetivo: Redes vitales de supervivencia: NETWAR 3 GW Actividades precursoras –Alejandro & Sun Tzu (y más allá hacia el pasado) Nuevos conceptos sobre armamento. Tecnología Paz de Westphalia Estados-vs-Estados — solo formas “legales” de guerra 2 GW Grupos No-estatales armados: partisanos, insurgentes, anarquistas, crimen organizado, terroristas ( OLP, ETA, B. ROJAS… etc..) Proliferación de armas Nucleares Caída USSR 1 GW 4 GW Estado vs. estado
Notas del editor
- This chart plays well as a slide show. As Echevarria rightly notes, 4GW does not lie in the logical sequence of 1/2/3 GW. In fact, the two vertical red lines on the right imply that that sequence has played itself out as state-vs-state warfare fades in significance. 4GW rises from the swamp at the bottom of the figure. The reason that 4GW is sometimes confused with guerrilla warfare is that violent transnational entities often use terrorism and guerrilla warfare methods - the classical way for militarily weak forces to defeat stronger ones. What defines 4GW is - as Lind and van Creveld insist - who fights and what they’re fighting for. Hammes observed that the transnational nature of 4GW means that networking (as in “social networking”) will be an important tool – see The Sling and the Stone – and so successful 4GW groups may resemble political parties that also have an armed component. Hezbullah fits this model, and the events of July 2006 shows how effective it can be. In this chart, “insurgents” are fighting the established government of a state, and “partisans” are fighting occupiers. Clearly there is a lot of overlap and both often use terrorism and guerrilla warfare at various stages of their campaigns. States also employ terrorism against their state and nonstate opponents and often against their own citizens (e.g., Reign of Terror, Halabja, the Holocaust, etc.) Nobody is exactly sure what “anarchists” were fighting for.