La sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica causó pérdidas estimadas de más de US$650 millones, afectando principalmente los sectores agrícola, hidroeléctrico y de agua potable. El sector agrícola sufrió pérdidas de cosechas por US$465 millones. El sector hidroeléctrico tuvo costos de sustitución por US$186 millones. Y el sector de agua potable tuvo aumentos en los costos operativos de aproximadamente US$1.5 millones. Se recomiendan medidas como mayor
2. Relevancia del análisis sectorial
Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica2/13 www.gwp.org
• Sector agrícola
– NIC → 20% del PIB
– GUAT, HN y NIC →35% de la fuerza de trabajo
• Sector hidroeléctrico
Generación de electricidad total e hidroeléctrica en el año 2014 (GWh).
0.00
2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
8,000.00
10,000.00
12,000.00
Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panamá
Otras Fuentes Hidro
• Sector agua potable
– Condición necesaria para el
desarrollo humano
– 88% de las enfermedades
diarreicas son producto de
agua insalubrela mejora
del abastecimiento de
agua reduce entre 6% y
21% la morbilidad por
diarrea.
– La sequía exacerba la
malnutrición y el hambre
3. Impactos sectoriales de la sequía
Agosto 2015 www.gwp.org
• Sector agrícola: pérdida de cosecha y
productividad, de inversiones, alza de
precios para el consumidor final, SAN,
60% daños en este sector
• Sector h.eléctrico: sustitución con
energía térmica, pérdida de
competitividad, racionamientos,
+emisiones de carbono
• A. potable: + costos de operación
(energía de extracción, cisternas),
+costos de tratamiento, racionamientos
+ sensible, depende directamente de la lluvia,
pequeños productores + afectados
Intrínsecamente resiliente, debido a los embalses
La provisión mediante pozos es menos sensible a la
sequía
Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica3/13
4. Sector agrícola
www.gwp.org
• Insumos:
– Costos de producción por HA para maíz y frijol
– Pérdidas porcentuales para maíz (50%) y frijol (25%), comparando datos de producción de 2012+
2013, con datos del 2014 (asumiendo un enfoque conservador)
Valor estimado de la pérdida por cultivo y país (U$).
País Maíz Frijol
Costa Rica
1.939.050 2.284.821
El Salvador
123.853.569 16.783.620
Guatemala
199.401.300 20.779.920
Honduras
37.323.000 7.874.000
Nicaragua
33.182.900 8.381.646
Panamá
12.957.225 949.050
Mas afectados: Guatemala y El Salvador
Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica4/13
5. Sector hidroeléctrico (1)
www.gwp.org
• Insumos/supuestos:
– Sustitución de la generación hidroeléctrica ante la sequía 2014 a través de combustibles fósiles
más caros y con mayores emisiones de CO2
– La disminución en la generación hidroeléctrica de 2014 con respecto al promedio 2010-2013 se
debe a la sequía
– Se considera 29 centavos de dólar por kwh para la generación con fuentes fósiles y 7 centavos
para la hidroeléctrica (con base a información del ICE de Costa Rica), de forma muy conservadora
Promedio
2009-2013 en
GWh/año
Generación 2014
Gwh/año
Reducción en
GWh/año
Costo de sustitución (US$)
Costa Rica 7.141,00 6.717,20 423,80 93.236.000
El Salvador 1.908,78 1.768,70 140,08 30.817.600
Guatemala 3.964,20 4.823,70 na na
Honduras 2.841,92 2.588,60 253,32 55.730.400
Nicaragua 417,40 389,10 28,30 6.226.000
Panamá 4.541,86 5.023,20 na na
186.010.000
Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica5/13
6. Sector hidroeléctrico (2)
www.gwp.org
• Además, hay un costo económico para la sociedad en su
conjunto. Esto incluye, por ejemplo, las emisiones adicionales
de CO2 debido a la generación térmica.
Toneladas CO2 adicionales
Costa Rica 141.125
El Salvador 46.647
Honduras 84.356
Nicaragua 9.424
281.552 Magnitud del impacto de US$2,8 millones
Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica6/13
7. Sector agua potable (1)
www.gwp.org
Insumos/supuestos:
El incremento del costo operativo ante una sequía no se contabiliza por los administradores de acueductos.
Se considera el siguiente enfoque, con base a diversas fuentes académicas y de investigación:
– Ante la sequía, 31% de aumento en los costos de energía debido al bombeo.
– Uso de agua por persona: 250 litros por día.
– La sequía afecta a los proveedores durante 90 días del año
– El análisis no aborda costos que las familias asumen (agua embotellada, grifos, pozos, ríos y camiones cisterna,
tiempo de recolección)
– Por ejemplo: en algunos casos el tiempo requerido es de más de 2 horas por metro cúbico
Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica7/13
8. Sector agua potable (2)
www.gwp.org
Aumento en Costo de Energía de Bombeo de Empresas de Agua potable
Centroamérica, Costos por m3.
Costo de energía US$/m3
Aumento en el Costo de
Energía (US$/m3)
US$/500 mil habitantes
afectados
Panamá-IDAAN 0,04 0,0124 139.500,00
Costa Rica-AYA 0,02 0,0062 69.750,00
El Salvador-ANDA 0,01 0,0031 34,875.00
Nicaragua-ENACAL 0,06 0,0186 209.250,00
Guatemala-EMPAGUA 0,12 0,0372 418.500,00
Honduras-SANAA 0,03 0,0093 104.625.00
Costa Rica-ESPH 0,02 0,0062 69.750,00
Honduras-AgPtoC 0,02 0,0062 69.750,00
Guatemala-EMAPET 0,06 0,0186 209.250,00
Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica8/13
9. Alternativas/recomendaciones
Agricultura
• Incremento de almacenamiento y área
bajo riego
• Agricultura climática inteligente
– alternar cosechas para resistencia a
sequías y pestes
– cambio en el período de plantación
– Investigación para nuevas variedades
resistentes a sequías
– Diversificación
www.gwp.org
9
• Seguros por pérdidas
• Distribución de pronósticos del clima
• Proyectos de uso múltiple del agua
Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica9/13
10. Alternativas/recomendaciones
Hidroelectricidad
• Aumento en la eficiencia de uso
• Diversificación utilizando fuentes renovables
• Mejoramiento de la información hidro-meteorológica
certera.
www.gwp.org
10
Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica10/13
11. Alternativas/recomendaciones
www.gwp.org
11
Agua potable
• Protección de fuentes, áreas de recarga y cuencas en su conjunto
• Reducción de pérdidas físicas en la distribución y agua no facturada
• Incluir sistemas de uso eficiente del agua en nuevos desarrollos urbanos
• Aumento en la capacidad de almacenamiento
• Mejoramiento de la eficiencia en el uso del agua
• Promuever el re-uso.
Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica10/13
12. Resumen I taller grupo técnico de GIRH www.gwp.org
Conclusiones (1)
• Pérdidas:
– Agricultura : $465 m aprox.*
– Hidroelectricidad: $186 m aprox.
– A. potable $1.5 m aprox.
• Situación regional: debilidad financiera/institucional de las
instancias prestadoras de los servicios
• Cualquier costo adicional empeora la situación, mejor capacidad de
respuesta de las instituciones, retrasando más las inversiones
*Sin considerar pérdidas del productor, desempleo, incremento precios
> US$650 millones → inversiones pueden
ser muy rentables
Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica11/13
13. Resumen I taller grupo técnico de GIRH www.gwp.org
Conclusiones (2)
• Se requiere de políticas integradas de sequía a nivel nacional y
regional
• El sector agrícola es el más impactado por la sequía, debido a la
población que afecta es la más vulnerable.
• La falta de información/registro de costos asociados a la sequía no
apoya la identificación de los impactos
• Priorizar la construcción de infraestructura de almacenamiento de
agua múlti-propósito
Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica113/13
14. www.gwp.org
Enero 2015 14Por un objetivo sobre agua
Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica13/13
Análisis socio económico
del impacto sectorial de
la sequía de 2014 en
Centroamérica
Notas del editor
This year, countries will be negotiating a series of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as part of the United Nations Post-2015 Development Agenda. These goals are in follow-up to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, which in 2000 formed a blueprint that inspired unprecedented global effort to meet the needs of the world’s poorest. It is crucially important for efforts to curb the global water crisis that water be reflected as a priority within this Post-2015 Development Agenda. Continued country-level support for a dedicated water goal is essential as negotiations are underway.
The new Sustainable Development Goals are expected to be endorsed by World Leaders during the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in 2015.
This year, countries will be negotiating a series of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as part of the United Nations Post-2015 Development Agenda. These goals are in follow-up to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, which in 2000 formed a blueprint that inspired unprecedented global effort to meet the needs of the world’s poorest. It is crucially important for efforts to curb the global water crisis that water be reflected as a priority within this Post-2015 Development Agenda. Continued country-level support for a dedicated water goal is essential as negotiations are underway.
The new Sustainable Development Goals are expected to be endorsed by World Leaders during the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in 2015.
This year, countries will be negotiating a series of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as part of the United Nations Post-2015 Development Agenda. These goals are in follow-up to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, which in 2000 formed a blueprint that inspired unprecedented global effort to meet the needs of the world’s poorest. It is crucially important for efforts to curb the global water crisis that water be reflected as a priority within this Post-2015 Development Agenda. Continued country-level support for a dedicated water goal is essential as negotiations are underway.
The new Sustainable Development Goals are expected to be endorsed by World Leaders during the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in 2015.
GWP Engagement for a new development agenda
Throughout 2013 and 2014, GWP worked in partnership with many of our stakeholders to undertake a series of country-level consultations around a dedicated water goal as a starting point. We undertook this work to help connect country-level efforts and priorities for a Post-2015 Development Agenda, including public and private sector,
22 country consultations took place from February to May 2013 focused on what a global water goal might look like, and were conducted in support of the Technical Advice of UN Water. It was through these consultations that we heard, on the ground, the importance of incorporating water in the Post-2015 Development Agenda. The findings were published in partnership with UN Water (National Stakeholder Consultations on Water: Supporting the Post-2015 Development Agenda)
Between February and April 2014, Global Water Partnership (GWP) brought together a further 1,200 participants in 29 countries to discuss concrete proposals for a water goal and related targets for the post-2015 development agenda. These consultations used the UN Water Technical Advice as a starting point, and the results were published and shared while the Open Working Group met throughout the year.
Together, these two processes brought together thousands of participants in dozens of countries, with broad participation from environment, agriculture, planning, and infrastructure sectors, including political representatives, government officials, and delegates from the private sector and civil society.
From these stakeholder consultations we found there was:
Broad consensus that a dedicated water goal is fundamental within the post-2015 development agenda;
Strong support for comprehensive and inter-related targets to advance integrated approaches to water management; and a
Clear preference for flexibility for setting national targets, supported by clear definitions of terms and indicators.
GWP was also represented in New York by our Executive Secretary, who served as a moderator for the 2014 UN Thematic Debate on Water and Energy in support of the Open Working Group’s work.
To note with GWP Audience: In December 2014, GWP Communications Team staff worldwide received training in campaign communications, using a campaign for a dedicated water goal as a point for training
GWP Engagement for a new development agenda
Throughout 2013 and 2014, GWP worked in partnership with many of our stakeholders to undertake a series of country-level consultations around a dedicated water goal as a starting point. We undertook this work to help connect country-level efforts and priorities for a Post-2015 Development Agenda, including public and private sector,
22 country consultations took place from February to May 2013 focused on what a global water goal might look like, and were conducted in support of the Technical Advice of UN Water. It was through these consultations that we heard, on the ground, the importance of incorporating water in the Post-2015 Development Agenda. The findings were published in partnership with UN Water (National Stakeholder Consultations on Water: Supporting the Post-2015 Development Agenda)
Between February and April 2014, Global Water Partnership (GWP) brought together a further 1,200 participants in 29 countries to discuss concrete proposals for a water goal and related targets for the post-2015 development agenda. These consultations used the UN Water Technical Advice as a starting point, and the results were published and shared while the Open Working Group met throughout the year.
Together, these two processes brought together thousands of participants in dozens of countries, with broad participation from environment, agriculture, planning, and infrastructure sectors, including political representatives, government officials, and delegates from the private sector and civil society.
From these stakeholder consultations we found there was:
Broad consensus that a dedicated water goal is fundamental within the post-2015 development agenda;
Strong support for comprehensive and inter-related targets to advance integrated approaches to water management; and a
Clear preference for flexibility for setting national targets, supported by clear definitions of terms and indicators.
GWP was also represented in New York by our Executive Secretary, who served as a moderator for the 2014 UN Thematic Debate on Water and Energy in support of the Open Working Group’s work.
To note with GWP Audience: In December 2014, GWP Communications Team staff worldwide received training in campaign communications, using a campaign for a dedicated water goal as a point for training
GWP Engagement for a new development agenda
Throughout 2013 and 2014, GWP worked in partnership with many of our stakeholders to undertake a series of country-level consultations around a dedicated water goal as a starting point. We undertook this work to help connect country-level efforts and priorities for a Post-2015 Development Agenda, including public and private sector,
22 country consultations took place from February to May 2013 focused on what a global water goal might look like, and were conducted in support of the Technical Advice of UN Water. It was through these consultations that we heard, on the ground, the importance of incorporating water in the Post-2015 Development Agenda. The findings were published in partnership with UN Water (National Stakeholder Consultations on Water: Supporting the Post-2015 Development Agenda)
Between February and April 2014, Global Water Partnership (GWP) brought together a further 1,200 participants in 29 countries to discuss concrete proposals for a water goal and related targets for the post-2015 development agenda. These consultations used the UN Water Technical Advice as a starting point, and the results were published and shared while the Open Working Group met throughout the year.
Together, these two processes brought together thousands of participants in dozens of countries, with broad participation from environment, agriculture, planning, and infrastructure sectors, including political representatives, government officials, and delegates from the private sector and civil society.
From these stakeholder consultations we found there was:
Broad consensus that a dedicated water goal is fundamental within the post-2015 development agenda;
Strong support for comprehensive and inter-related targets to advance integrated approaches to water management; and a
Clear preference for flexibility for setting national targets, supported by clear definitions of terms and indicators.
GWP was also represented in New York by our Executive Secretary, who served as a moderator for the 2014 UN Thematic Debate on Water and Energy in support of the Open Working Group’s work.
To note with GWP Audience: In December 2014, GWP Communications Team staff worldwide received training in campaign communications, using a campaign for a dedicated water goal as a point for training
GWP Engagement for a new development agenda
Throughout 2013 and 2014, GWP worked in partnership with many of our stakeholders to undertake a series of country-level consultations around a dedicated water goal as a starting point. We undertook this work to help connect country-level efforts and priorities for a Post-2015 Development Agenda, including public and private sector,
22 country consultations took place from February to May 2013 focused on what a global water goal might look like, and were conducted in support of the Technical Advice of UN Water. It was through these consultations that we heard, on the ground, the importance of incorporating water in the Post-2015 Development Agenda. The findings were published in partnership with UN Water (National Stakeholder Consultations on Water: Supporting the Post-2015 Development Agenda)
Between February and April 2014, Global Water Partnership (GWP) brought together a further 1,200 participants in 29 countries to discuss concrete proposals for a water goal and related targets for the post-2015 development agenda. These consultations used the UN Water Technical Advice as a starting point, and the results were published and shared while the Open Working Group met throughout the year.
Together, these two processes brought together thousands of participants in dozens of countries, with broad participation from environment, agriculture, planning, and infrastructure sectors, including political representatives, government officials, and delegates from the private sector and civil society.
From these stakeholder consultations we found there was:
Broad consensus that a dedicated water goal is fundamental within the post-2015 development agenda;
Strong support for comprehensive and inter-related targets to advance integrated approaches to water management; and a
Clear preference for flexibility for setting national targets, supported by clear definitions of terms and indicators.
GWP was also represented in New York by our Executive Secretary, who served as a moderator for the 2014 UN Thematic Debate on Water and Energy in support of the Open Working Group’s work.
To note with GWP Audience: In December 2014, GWP Communications Team staff worldwide received training in campaign communications, using a campaign for a dedicated water goal as a point for training
Throughout 2014 dozens of Permanent Representatives at the UN signed a call for a dedicated water goal in the Post-2015 Development Agenda.
The UN General Assembly has agreed that a proposed 17 goals serve as a basis for negotiations, however this agreement is just the starting point. 2015 will be a crucial year to ensure water stays on the SDG Agenda.
Throughout 2014 dozens of Permanent Representatives at the UN signed a call for a dedicated water goal in the Post-2015 Development Agenda.
The UN General Assembly has agreed that a proposed 17 goals serve as a basis for negotiations, however this agreement is just the starting point. 2015 will be a crucial year to ensure water stays on the SDG Agenda.
Throughout 2014 dozens of Permanent Representatives at the UN signed a call for a dedicated water goal in the Post-2015 Development Agenda.
The UN General Assembly has agreed that a proposed 17 goals serve as a basis for negotiations, however this agreement is just the starting point. 2015 will be a crucial year to ensure water stays on the SDG Agenda.
This year, countries will be negotiating a series of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as part of the United Nations Post-2015 Development Agenda. These goals are in follow-up to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, which in 2000 formed a blueprint that inspired unprecedented global effort to meet the needs of the world’s poorest. It is crucially important for efforts to curb the global water crisis that water be reflected as a priority within this Post-2015 Development Agenda. Continued country-level support for a dedicated water goal is essential as negotiations are underway.
The new Sustainable Development Goals are expected to be endorsed by World Leaders during the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in 2015.
This year, countries will be negotiating a series of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as part of the United Nations Post-2015 Development Agenda. These goals are in follow-up to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, which in 2000 formed a blueprint that inspired unprecedented global effort to meet the needs of the world’s poorest. It is crucially important for efforts to curb the global water crisis that water be reflected as a priority within this Post-2015 Development Agenda. Continued country-level support for a dedicated water goal is essential as negotiations are underway.
The new Sustainable Development Goals are expected to be endorsed by World Leaders during the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in 2015.