4. Produccion mundial: detalles de cultivo por pais
COUNTRY - AREA EMISPHERE CROP TYPE HARVEST MONTH RAINFED / IRRIG. AREA INTERNATIONAL TRADE
ITALY NORTH WINTER JUNE 100 / 0 % IMPORTER
FRANCE – South NORTH WINTER JUNE 100 / 0 %
EXPORTER
FRANCE – Center NORTH WINTER JULY 100 / 0 %
SPAIN NORTH WINTER JUNE 100 / 0 % EXPORTER
GREECE NORTH WINTER JUNE 100 / 0 % EXPORTER
RUSSIA / KAZAKH. NORTH SPRING AUGUST 100 / 0 % OCCASIONAL EXPORTER
CANADA NORTH SPRING AUGUST 100 / 0 % EXPORTER
U.S.A. – North NORTH SPRING AUGUST 100 / 0 %
EXPORTER
U.S.A. – South West NORTH WINTER MAY 0 / 100 %
MEXICO – Sonora NORTH WINTER APRIL 0 / 100 %
EXPORTER
MEXICO - Mexicali NORTH WINTER MAY 0 / 100 %
ARGENTINA SOUTH WINTER DECEMBER 100 / 0 % VERY OCCASIONAL EXP.
TURKEY NORTH WINTER MAY 80 / 20 % OCCASIONAL EXP. / IMP.
SYRIA NORTH WINTER MAY 50 / 50 % OCCASIONAL EXPORTER
INDIA NORTH WINTER MAY 80 / 20 % VERY OCCASIONAL EXP.
NORTH AFRICA NORTH WINTER MAY 100 / 0 % IMPORTER
AUSTRALIA SOUTH WINTER DECEMBER 100 / 0 % EXPORTER
7. Principales países productores, 2014-15 produccion estimada, 2015-16 pronosticada
Country 2013-14 2014-15 e 2015-16 f Δ 15-16/14-15
World 37.8 31.5 34.6 3.1
EU 7.9 7.6 7.9 0.3
Italy 3.9 3.7 3.9 0.2
France 1.8 1.5 1.9 0.4
Spain 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.1
Greece 1.0 0.8 0.7 -0.1
Canada 6.5 5.2 4.8 -0.4
U.S. 1.7 1.4 2.1 0.7
Kazakhstan 0.5 0.5 0.5 0
Mexico 2.3 2.0 2.0 0.0
Argentina 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0
Morocco 1.9 1.4 2.3 0.9
Syria 1.5 0.8 1.4 0.6
Turkey 3.2 2.1 2.4 0.3
Algeria 2.5 1.3 2.5 1.2
Libya 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Tunisia 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.0
India 1.2 1.3 1.2 -0.1
Australia 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0
Others 6.9 5.7 5.3 -0.4
Source: IGC, USDA, EU Commission, Stratégie Grains, FranceAgriMer, Open Fields
8. Sintesis de los primeros datos de la campaña productiva 2015-16
Europe. Total production could reach 7.9Mt, France: production 1.8-1.9Mt, good quality.
Greece: harvest damaged by rain: 0,7 Mt. Spain: production 0.9 Mt, yield problems with
heat, very good quality.
Italy: current estimation 3.9 Mt (low yields, average good quality , but with relevant
variance)
Canada: production data are uncertain, probably 4.8 Mt (harvest in progress),
quality to be assessed depending on the effects of rain on contaminants
Mexico: despite a rise in acreage of 50 kha compared with last year, to 380 kha,
production is expected steady compared with 2014/15, near to 2.0 Mt
U.S.: expected harvested area up 43%, probable production 2.1 Mt. Good quality.
Algeria and North Africa: uncertainty about produced volumes because of the influence on
data of governative strategies
La produccion
total puede
alcanzar 35
Mt, mientras
la campaña
pasada eran
poco mas que
32 Mt)
13. Precios: MGEX
La alta volatilidadde los precios es debida a diferentes causas.
Aspectos generales:tasas de cambio, costo de la energía, precios del mais y del trigoharinero…
Otros aspectos específicos que derivan de las características del trigo cristalino: es una especie de cereal menor (representa solo el 5%
de la producción mundial del trigo), hay sobretodo dos áreas productivas principales: una produce y importa (área del Mediterráneo), la
otra mayormente produce y exporta (America del Norte). Las áreas donde el trigo cristalino es cultivado son caracterizadas por un clima
muy variable, (altas temperaturas, sequía, Fusarium…). El crigo ctrastalino compete con otros cultivos menos riesgosos y con precios
menos variables. Generalmente produce menos del trigoharinero con la excepción the Mexico.
15. Relacion existencia (inventario) y consumo (“Stock-to-Use Ratio”)
La relaciónexistencia (inventario) y consumo indica el nivel de inventariocomo un porcentaje del consumo total.
Comparando este porcentaje en diferentes anos es posible desarrollar una estima de la volatilidad.
En una base mundial el porcentaje de utilización por debajo del 20% puede crear problemas de oscilación del precio del trigo. Por
ejemplo el maíz, el porcentaje de utilizaciónde menos del 12% puede crear los mismos efectos que en el ejemploanterior.
17. ICE Canada cotización de trigo cristalino 2015, $ can/t
The Durum Wheat contract prices physical delivery of Canada Western Amber Durum
(CWAD) wheat free-on-board at elevators in South-western Saskatchewan, with
additional delivery points in South-eastern Saskatchewan and Southern Alberta.
Market Specifications
Pricing Basis: Free on Board points in the Par Region
Currency: Canadian dollars
Delivery Months: March, May, July, October, December
Deliverable Specifications: Contract deliverable grades shall be based on primary
elevator grade standards as established by the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC).
(1) Non-commercially clean Canadian durum wheat with a minimum of 12.5%
protein, a maximum of 2.0 ppm vomitoxin, and a maximum dockage of 1% (dockage
deductable to CGC standards), all other specifications to meet No. 1 Canada Western
Amber Durum Wheat at par; or
(2) Non-commercially clean Canadian durum wheat with a minimum of 12.5%
protein, a maximum of 2.0 ppm vomitoxin, and a maximum dockage of 1% (dockage
deductable to CGC standards), all other specifications to meet No. 2 Canada Western
Amber Durum Wheat at a discount of $5.00 per net tonne.
Delivery Points: Par - Locations in Saskatchewan, West of Moose Jaw and south of
Saskatoon, and at Saskatoon. Southeast Saskatchewan - Locations in Saskatchewan, at
and east of Moose Jaw, at a $6.00 per tonne premium. Southern Alberta - Locations in
Alberta, at Calgary and south of Calgary,and at Oyen, at a $6.00per tonne discount.
Contract Size: 1 contract = 100 tonnes
Trade Match Algorithm: First-in-First-out (FIFO).
First Notice Day: One Trading Day prior to the first delivery day.
First Delivery Day: First Trading Day of the delivery month.
Last Trading Day: Trading Day preceding the fifteenth calendar day of the delivery
month.
Minimum Price Flux: $0.10/tonne ($10.00 per contract)
Daily Price Limit: $20.00/tonne above or below previous settlement, expandable to $30
and then to $40. Daily Price Limits are not applied when there is no Open Interest in
any futures contract month or options series.
Speculative Position Limit: 200 contracts in delivery month
Par Deliverable
Grade
No. 1 Canada Western Amber Durum (CWAD) wheat with minimum 12.5%
protein, maximum 2.0 ppm vomitoxin, and maximum 1% dockage.
Delivery Points
Almacenes regulares en el suroeste Saskatchewan, con entreghas y otros puntos en el ser de
Saskatchewan y el sur de Alberta premios definidos o descuentos .
Sources: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/DN.html, https://www.theice.com/products/3912643/Durum-Wheat-Futures/specs