Sales for Aceros Arequipa were lower than estimated despite higher prices due to lower volumes sold. However, the EBITDA margin was higher than estimated at 8.3% versus 6.5% due to reductions in administrative and sales costs. While net income reached S/. 13.0m in 1Q13, down 66.4% year-over-year, it was higher than in 4Q12, the lowest net income over the past three years.

1. 1
1T13 Resultados: Aceros Arequipa
Significativa reducción de costos
Mayo 6, 2013
Maria Teresa Sarmiento
(+51 1) 416 3333 – Ext. 33055
Las ventas de Aceros Arequipa fueron menores a nuestros
estimados a pesar del aumento en los precios, debido al menor
volumen vendido. El margen EBITDA fue mayor a nuestros
estimados (8.3% vs. 6.5%) explicado por una reducción en los
costos administrativos y de ventas.
Estado de Resultados
Las ventas llegaron hasta S/. 550.3m (+1.1% YoY y -2.7% QoQ) y la
utilidad bruta se redujo desde S/. 94.4m en 1T12 hasta S/: 82.7m en
1T13; pero, comparado con 4T12, el resultado obtenido fue mayor en
+34.8%. Esta situación se explica principalmente por el aumento de los
precios del acero desde finales del 2012.
El margen bruto creció de 10.8% en 4T12 hasta 15.0% en 1T13 debido
al aumento de los precios domésticos del acero lo que afectó
positivamente el margen bruto a partir del 2013.
El EBITDA se redujo hasta S/. 45.6m (-24.5% YoY) en 1T13 siendo
mayor a nuestro estimado (S/. 42.4m) debido a la reducción en los
gastos de administrativos y de ventas. Como consecuencia el margen
EBITDA fue 8.3% en 1T13 (vs. 6.5% estimado) representando un
aumento comparado con los márgenes observados en 3T12 y 4T12.
La utilidad neta llegó hasta S/. 13.0m en 1T13 (-66.4% YoY) y fue
mayor a la observada en 4T12 (S/. 2.7m), la cual fue la menor utilidad
obtenida en los últimos tres años.
Balance General
La deuda financiera de corto plazo se redujo hasta S/. 628.9m (-10.6
QoQ) debido a su remplazo por deuda de mediano plazo. En ese
sentido, la deuda de largo plazo de la compañía aumentó hasta S/.
453.2m en 1T13 y el ratio deuda financiera/patrimonio aumentó desde
0.72x en 4T12 hasta 0.79x en 1T13; y el ratio deuda financiera/EBITDA
se mantuvo en sus niveles máximos (8.9x en 1T13). Es importante
resaltar que Aceros Arequipa continua con su programa de
reperfilamiento de deuda y se espera que culmine en 2T13.
Valorización
Nuestra recomendación es COMPRAR Aceros Arequipa (AA) con un
valor fundamental de S/. 0.95 (luego de la entrega de dividendos), lo
que implica un potencial de apreciación de 55.7% (vs. S/. 0.61 al 3 de
mayo).
De acuerdo con la valorización por múltiplos, AA se negocia a niveles
más altos de P/U respecto a sus comparables pero el EV/EBITDA se
mantiene en línea con sus comparables.
Información de la acción
Estimados
Comparables
Resultados 1T13
Información de la acción BBG Ticker: CORAREI1 PE
Recomendación COMPRAR
2013YET.P. (PEN) 0.95
Precio actual(PEN) 0.61
Upside (%) 55.7%
2013EDiv. Yield (%) 0.0%
Capitalización Bursátil (USDm) 372.2
Max / Min U12M (PEN) 1.81 / 0.55
Volumen promedio (USDk) 108.3
PENm 1T13A 1T13E A/E 1T12 Y/Y
Ingresos 550.3 649.2 -15.2% 544.6 1.1%
EBITDA 45.6 42.4 7.4% 60.3 -24.5%
Utilidad neta 13.0 10.1 28.8% 38.7 -66.4%
UPA (PEN) 0.01 0.01 28.8% 0.03 -66.4%
Márgenes
Margen EBITDA 8.3% 6.5% 26.7% 11.1% -25.3%
Margen Neto 2.4% 1.6% 51.9% 7.1% -66.7%
PENm 2011 2012 LTM 2013P 2014P
Ingresos 2,064.8 2,165.9 2,171.6 2,648.6 3,262.9
Utilidad operativa 256.4 88.4 73.0 102.3 173.1
EBITDA 332.6 136.5 121.7 171.8 250.2
Utilidad neta 194.0 59.2 33.5 42.1 90.5
UPA (PEN) 0.17 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.08
Márgenes
Margen operativo 12.4% 4.1% 3.4% 3.9% 5.3%
Margne EBITDA 16.1% 6.3% 5.6% 6.5% 7.7%
Margen neto 9.4% 2.7% 1.5% 1.6% 2.8%
Multiplos
EV/EBITDA 5.2x 13.6x 13.4x 5.8x 4.0x
P/E 7.2x 17.6x 19.0x 23.7x 11.0x
SiderPerú
Gerdau
Usiminas
CAP
Grupo Simec
Aceros Arequipa
Promotora y
Operadora de
Infraestructura
Ternium
0x
2x
4x
6x
8x
10x
12x
14x
16x
0x 4x 8x 12x 16x 20x 24x 28x
EV/EBITDA2013P
P/E 2013P

2. 2
1T13 Resultados: Aceros Arequipa
Significativa reducción de costos
Mayo 6, 2013
Maria Teresa Sarmiento
(+51 1) 416 3333 – Ext. 33055
CHILE PERÚ Hernán Arellano Marilyn Macdonald
Head of Equities Equity Sales International
Francisca Manu Alejandro Rabanal harellano@imtrust.cl mar_macdonald@btconnect.com
Head of Equity Research - Chile Head of Equity Research - Perú # (562) 2446 1706 # (4477) 7151 5855
fmanu arabanal@bcp.com.pe
# (562) 2446 1798 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 36070 Roberto Salas Cristián Castillo
Equity Sales International Sales Trader International
Christopher DiSalvatore María Teresa Sarmiento rsalas@imtrust.cl ccastillo@credicorpcapital.com
Senior Analyst: Retail & Financials Senior Analyst: Infrastructure # (562) 2446 1732 # (786) 999 1633
cdisalvatore@imtrust.cl msarmientov@bcp.com.pe
# (562) 2446 1724 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 33055 CHILE PERÚ
Felipe Etchegaray Fernando Pereda Rene Ossa Jorge Monsante
Senior Analyst: Utilities Senior Analyst: Cement & Utilities Equity Sales International General Manager Credibolsa
fetchegaray@imtrust.cl fpereda@bcp.com.pe reneossa@imtrust.cl jmonsante@bcp.com.pe
# (562) 2446 1768 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 37856 # (562) 2651 9324 # (511) 313 2918
Ignacio Spencer Héctor Collantes Christian Munchmeyer Gonzalo Morales
Senior Analyst: Food & Beverages, Others Senior Analyst: Mining Sales & Trading International Head of Sales & Trading
ispencer@imtrust.cl hcollantes@bcp.com.pe cmunchmeyer@imtrust.cl gmorales@bcp.com.pe
# (562) 2450 1688 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 33052 # (562) 2450 1613 # (511) 313 2918 Ext 32901
Javier Günther Omar Avellaneda COLOMBIA Jorge Juan Aita
Analyst: Construction & Health Services Senior Analyst: Retail & Others Sales & Trading
jgunther@imtrust.cl oavellaneda@bcp.com.pe Sergio Ortíz jaita@bcp.com.pe
# (562) 2450 1695 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 36065 Head of Equities Sales - Colombia # (511) 313 2918 Ext 32901
sortiz@correval.com
José Manuel Edwards COLOMBIA # (571) 339 4400 Ext 273 Úrsula Mitterhofer
Analyst: Natural Resources Sales & Trading
jedwards@imtrust.cl Daniel Velandia Juan Antonio Jiménez umitterhofer@bcp.com.pe
# (562) 2446 1761 Head of Research & Chief Economist Head of Equity Sales International # (511) 313 2918 Ext 32922
dvelandia@correval.com jjimenez@correval.com
Lourdes Alamos # (571) 339 4400 Ext 505 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 466
Assistant to Research
lalamos@imtrust.cl Valeria Marconi Santiago Castro
# (562) 2450 1609 Senior Analyst: Oil & Gas Sales & Trading International
vmarconi@correval.com scastro@correval.com
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 594 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 369
Jaime Pedroza
Senior Analyst: Utilities
jpedroza@correval.com
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 9139
Juan Camilo Domínguez
Senior Analyst: Banks
jcdominguez@correval.com
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 572
Juliana Valencia
Analyst: GEA & BVC
jvalencia@correval.com
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 365
EQUITY RESEARCH TEAM EQUITY SALES & TRADING
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