La sequía en Centroamérica: impactos sectoriales
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La sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica causó pérdidas estimadas de más de US$650 millones, afectando principalmente los sectores agrícola, hidroeléctrico y de agua potable. El sector agrícola sufrió pérdidas de cosechas por US$465 millones. El sector hidroeléctrico tuvo costos de sustitución por US$186 millones. Y el sector de agua potable tuvo aumentos en los costos operativos de aproximadamente US$1.5 millones. Se recomiendan medidas como mayor
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La sequía en Centroamérica: impactos sectoriales
- 1. Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica www.gwp.org 1
- 2. Relevancia del análisis sectorial Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica2/13 www.gwp.org • Sector agrícola – NIC → 20% del PIB – GUAT, HN y NIC →35% de la fuerza de trabajo • Sector hidroeléctrico Generación de electricidad total e hidroeléctrica en el año 2014 (GWh). 0.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00 12,000.00 Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panamá Otras Fuentes Hidro • Sector agua potable – Condición necesaria para el desarrollo humano – 88% de las enfermedades diarreicas son producto de agua insalubrela mejora del abastecimiento de agua reduce entre 6% y 21% la morbilidad por diarrea. – La sequía exacerba la malnutrición y el hambre
- 3. Impactos sectoriales de la sequía Agosto 2015 www.gwp.org • Sector agrícola: pérdida de cosecha y productividad, de inversiones, alza de precios para el consumidor final, SAN, 60% daños en este sector • Sector h.eléctrico: sustitución con energía térmica, pérdida de competitividad, racionamientos, +emisiones de carbono • A. potable: + costos de operación (energía de extracción, cisternas), +costos de tratamiento, racionamientos + sensible, depende directamente de la lluvia, pequeños productores + afectados Intrínsecamente resiliente, debido a los embalses La provisión mediante pozos es menos sensible a la sequía Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica3/13
- 4. Sector agrícola www.gwp.org • Insumos: – Costos de producción por HA para maíz y frijol – Pérdidas porcentuales para maíz (50%) y frijol (25%), comparando datos de producción de 2012+ 2013, con datos del 2014 (asumiendo un enfoque conservador) Valor estimado de la pérdida por cultivo y país (U$). País Maíz Frijol Costa Rica 1.939.050 2.284.821 El Salvador 123.853.569 16.783.620 Guatemala 199.401.300 20.779.920 Honduras 37.323.000 7.874.000 Nicaragua 33.182.900 8.381.646 Panamá 12.957.225 949.050 Mas afectados: Guatemala y El Salvador Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica4/13
- 5. Sector hidroeléctrico (1) www.gwp.org • Insumos/supuestos: – Sustitución de la generación hidroeléctrica ante la sequía 2014 a través de combustibles fósiles más caros y con mayores emisiones de CO2 – La disminución en la generación hidroeléctrica de 2014 con respecto al promedio 2010-2013 se debe a la sequía – Se considera 29 centavos de dólar por kwh para la generación con fuentes fósiles y 7 centavos para la hidroeléctrica (con base a información del ICE de Costa Rica), de forma muy conservadora Promedio 2009-2013 en GWh/año Generación 2014 Gwh/año Reducción en GWh/año Costo de sustitución (US$) Costa Rica 7.141,00 6.717,20 423,80 93.236.000 El Salvador 1.908,78 1.768,70 140,08 30.817.600 Guatemala 3.964,20 4.823,70 na na Honduras 2.841,92 2.588,60 253,32 55.730.400 Nicaragua 417,40 389,10 28,30 6.226.000 Panamá 4.541,86 5.023,20 na na 186.010.000 Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica5/13
- 6. Sector hidroeléctrico (2) www.gwp.org • Además, hay un costo económico para la sociedad en su conjunto. Esto incluye, por ejemplo, las emisiones adicionales de CO2 debido a la generación térmica. Toneladas CO2 adicionales Costa Rica 141.125 El Salvador 46.647 Honduras 84.356 Nicaragua 9.424 281.552 Magnitud del impacto de US$2,8 millones Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica6/13
- 7. Sector agua potable (1) www.gwp.org Insumos/supuestos: El incremento del costo operativo ante una sequía no se contabiliza por los administradores de acueductos. Se considera el siguiente enfoque, con base a diversas fuentes académicas y de investigación: – Ante la sequía, 31% de aumento en los costos de energía debido al bombeo. – Uso de agua por persona: 250 litros por día. – La sequía afecta a los proveedores durante 90 días del año – El análisis no aborda costos que las familias asumen (agua embotellada, grifos, pozos, ríos y camiones cisterna, tiempo de recolección) – Por ejemplo: en algunos casos el tiempo requerido es de más de 2 horas por metro cúbico Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica7/13
- 8. Sector agua potable (2) www.gwp.org Aumento en Costo de Energía de Bombeo de Empresas de Agua potable Centroamérica, Costos por m3. Costo de energía US$/m3 Aumento en el Costo de Energía (US$/m3) US$/500 mil habitantes afectados Panamá-IDAAN 0,04 0,0124 139.500,00 Costa Rica-AYA 0,02 0,0062 69.750,00 El Salvador-ANDA 0,01 0,0031 34,875.00 Nicaragua-ENACAL 0,06 0,0186 209.250,00 Guatemala-EMPAGUA 0,12 0,0372 418.500,00 Honduras-SANAA 0,03 0,0093 104.625.00 Costa Rica-ESPH 0,02 0,0062 69.750,00 Honduras-AgPtoC 0,02 0,0062 69.750,00 Guatemala-EMAPET 0,06 0,0186 209.250,00 Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica8/13
- 9. Alternativas/recomendaciones Agricultura • Incremento de almacenamiento y área bajo riego • Agricultura climática inteligente – alternar cosechas para resistencia a sequías y pestes – cambio en el período de plantación – Investigación para nuevas variedades resistentes a sequías – Diversificación www.gwp.org 9 • Seguros por pérdidas • Distribución de pronósticos del clima • Proyectos de uso múltiple del agua Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica9/13
- 10. Alternativas/recomendaciones Hidroelectricidad • Aumento en la eficiencia de uso • Diversificación utilizando fuentes renovables • Mejoramiento de la información hidro-meteorológica certera. www.gwp.org 10 Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica10/13
- 11. Alternativas/recomendaciones www.gwp.org 11 Agua potable • Protección de fuentes, áreas de recarga y cuencas en su conjunto • Reducción de pérdidas físicas en la distribución y agua no facturada • Incluir sistemas de uso eficiente del agua en nuevos desarrollos urbanos • Aumento en la capacidad de almacenamiento • Mejoramiento de la eficiencia en el uso del agua • Promuever el re-uso. Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica10/13
- 12. Resumen I taller grupo técnico de GIRH www.gwp.org Conclusiones (1) • Pérdidas: – Agricultura : $465 m aprox.* – Hidroelectricidad: $186 m aprox. – A. potable $1.5 m aprox. • Situación regional: debilidad financiera/institucional de las instancias prestadoras de los servicios • Cualquier costo adicional empeora la situación, mejor capacidad de respuesta de las instituciones, retrasando más las inversiones *Sin considerar pérdidas del productor, desempleo, incremento precios > US$650 millones → inversiones pueden ser muy rentables Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica11/13
- 13. Resumen I taller grupo técnico de GIRH www.gwp.org Conclusiones (2) • Se requiere de políticas integradas de sequía a nivel nacional y regional • El sector agrícola es el más impactado por la sequía, debido a la población que afecta es la más vulnerable. • La falta de información/registro de costos asociados a la sequía no apoya la identificación de los impactos • Priorizar la construcción de infraestructura de almacenamiento de agua múlti-propósito Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica113/13
- 14. www.gwp.org Enero 2015 14Por un objetivo sobre agua Febrero 2016 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica13/13 Análisis socio económico del impacto sectorial de la sequía de 2014 en Centroamérica
Notas del editor
- This year, countries will be negotiating a series of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as part of the United Nations Post-2015 Development Agenda. These goals are in follow-up to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, which in 2000 formed a blueprint that inspired unprecedented global effort to meet the needs of the world’s poorest. It is crucially important for efforts to curb the global water crisis that water be reflected as a priority within this Post-2015 Development Agenda. Continued country-level support for a dedicated water goal is essential as negotiations are underway. The new Sustainable Development Goals are expected to be endorsed by World Leaders during the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in 2015.
- This year, countries will be negotiating a series of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as part of the United Nations Post-2015 Development Agenda. These goals are in follow-up to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, which in 2000 formed a blueprint that inspired unprecedented global effort to meet the needs of the world’s poorest. It is crucially important for efforts to curb the global water crisis that water be reflected as a priority within this Post-2015 Development Agenda. Continued country-level support for a dedicated water goal is essential as negotiations are underway. The new Sustainable Development Goals are expected to be endorsed by World Leaders during the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in 2015.
- This year, countries will be negotiating a series of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as part of the United Nations Post-2015 Development Agenda. These goals are in follow-up to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, which in 2000 formed a blueprint that inspired unprecedented global effort to meet the needs of the world’s poorest. It is crucially important for efforts to curb the global water crisis that water be reflected as a priority within this Post-2015 Development Agenda. Continued country-level support for a dedicated water goal is essential as negotiations are underway. The new Sustainable Development Goals are expected to be endorsed by World Leaders during the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in 2015.
- GWP Engagement for a new development agenda Throughout 2013 and 2014, GWP worked in partnership with many of our stakeholders to undertake a series of country-level consultations around a dedicated water goal as a starting point. We undertook this work to help connect country-level efforts and priorities for a Post-2015 Development Agenda, including public and private sector, 22 country consultations took place from February to May 2013 focused on what a global water goal might look like, and were conducted in support of the Technical Advice of UN Water. It was through these consultations that we heard, on the ground, the importance of incorporating water in the Post-2015 Development Agenda. The findings were published in partnership with UN Water (National Stakeholder Consultations on Water: Supporting the Post-2015 Development Agenda) Between February and April 2014, Global Water Partnership (GWP) brought together a further 1,200 participants in 29 countries to discuss concrete proposals for a water goal and related targets for the post-2015 development agenda. These consultations used the UN Water Technical Advice as a starting point, and the results were published and shared while the Open Working Group met throughout the year. Together, these two processes brought together thousands of participants in dozens of countries, with broad participation from environment, agriculture, planning, and infrastructure sectors, including political representatives, government officials, and delegates from the private sector and civil society. From these stakeholder consultations we found there was: Broad consensus that a dedicated water goal is fundamental within the post-2015 development agenda; Strong support for comprehensive and inter-related targets to advance integrated approaches to water management; and a Clear preference for flexibility for setting national targets, supported by clear definitions of terms and indicators. GWP was also represented in New York by our Executive Secretary, who served as a moderator for the 2014 UN Thematic Debate on Water and Energy in support of the Open Working Group’s work. To note with GWP Audience: In December 2014, GWP Communications Team staff worldwide received training in campaign communications, using a campaign for a dedicated water goal as a point for training
- GWP Engagement for a new development agenda Throughout 2013 and 2014, GWP worked in partnership with many of our stakeholders to undertake a series of country-level consultations around a dedicated water goal as a starting point. We undertook this work to help connect country-level efforts and priorities for a Post-2015 Development Agenda, including public and private sector, 22 country consultations took place from February to May 2013 focused on what a global water goal might look like, and were conducted in support of the Technical Advice of UN Water. It was through these consultations that we heard, on the ground, the importance of incorporating water in the Post-2015 Development Agenda. The findings were published in partnership with UN Water (National Stakeholder Consultations on Water: Supporting the Post-2015 Development Agenda) Between February and April 2014, Global Water Partnership (GWP) brought together a further 1,200 participants in 29 countries to discuss concrete proposals for a water goal and related targets for the post-2015 development agenda. These consultations used the UN Water Technical Advice as a starting point, and the results were published and shared while the Open Working Group met throughout the year. Together, these two processes brought together thousands of participants in dozens of countries, with broad participation from environment, agriculture, planning, and infrastructure sectors, including political representatives, government officials, and delegates from the private sector and civil society. From these stakeholder consultations we found there was: Broad consensus that a dedicated water goal is fundamental within the post-2015 development agenda; Strong support for comprehensive and inter-related targets to advance integrated approaches to water management; and a Clear preference for flexibility for setting national targets, supported by clear definitions of terms and indicators. GWP was also represented in New York by our Executive Secretary, who served as a moderator for the 2014 UN Thematic Debate on Water and Energy in support of the Open Working Group’s work. To note with GWP Audience: In December 2014, GWP Communications Team staff worldwide received training in campaign communications, using a campaign for a dedicated water goal as a point for training
- GWP Engagement for a new development agenda Throughout 2013 and 2014, GWP worked in partnership with many of our stakeholders to undertake a series of country-level consultations around a dedicated water goal as a starting point. We undertook this work to help connect country-level efforts and priorities for a Post-2015 Development Agenda, including public and private sector, 22 country consultations took place from February to May 2013 focused on what a global water goal might look like, and were conducted in support of the Technical Advice of UN Water. It was through these consultations that we heard, on the ground, the importance of incorporating water in the Post-2015 Development Agenda. The findings were published in partnership with UN Water (National Stakeholder Consultations on Water: Supporting the Post-2015 Development Agenda) Between February and April 2014, Global Water Partnership (GWP) brought together a further 1,200 participants in 29 countries to discuss concrete proposals for a water goal and related targets for the post-2015 development agenda. These consultations used the UN Water Technical Advice as a starting point, and the results were published and shared while the Open Working Group met throughout the year. Together, these two processes brought together thousands of participants in dozens of countries, with broad participation from environment, agriculture, planning, and infrastructure sectors, including political representatives, government officials, and delegates from the private sector and civil society. From these stakeholder consultations we found there was: Broad consensus that a dedicated water goal is fundamental within the post-2015 development agenda; Strong support for comprehensive and inter-related targets to advance integrated approaches to water management; and a Clear preference for flexibility for setting national targets, supported by clear definitions of terms and indicators. GWP was also represented in New York by our Executive Secretary, who served as a moderator for the 2014 UN Thematic Debate on Water and Energy in support of the Open Working Group’s work. To note with GWP Audience: In December 2014, GWP Communications Team staff worldwide received training in campaign communications, using a campaign for a dedicated water goal as a point for training
- GWP Engagement for a new development agenda Throughout 2013 and 2014, GWP worked in partnership with many of our stakeholders to undertake a series of country-level consultations around a dedicated water goal as a starting point. We undertook this work to help connect country-level efforts and priorities for a Post-2015 Development Agenda, including public and private sector, 22 country consultations took place from February to May 2013 focused on what a global water goal might look like, and were conducted in support of the Technical Advice of UN Water. It was through these consultations that we heard, on the ground, the importance of incorporating water in the Post-2015 Development Agenda. The findings were published in partnership with UN Water (National Stakeholder Consultations on Water: Supporting the Post-2015 Development Agenda) Between February and April 2014, Global Water Partnership (GWP) brought together a further 1,200 participants in 29 countries to discuss concrete proposals for a water goal and related targets for the post-2015 development agenda. These consultations used the UN Water Technical Advice as a starting point, and the results were published and shared while the Open Working Group met throughout the year. Together, these two processes brought together thousands of participants in dozens of countries, with broad participation from environment, agriculture, planning, and infrastructure sectors, including political representatives, government officials, and delegates from the private sector and civil society. From these stakeholder consultations we found there was: Broad consensus that a dedicated water goal is fundamental within the post-2015 development agenda; Strong support for comprehensive and inter-related targets to advance integrated approaches to water management; and a Clear preference for flexibility for setting national targets, supported by clear definitions of terms and indicators. GWP was also represented in New York by our Executive Secretary, who served as a moderator for the 2014 UN Thematic Debate on Water and Energy in support of the Open Working Group’s work. To note with GWP Audience: In December 2014, GWP Communications Team staff worldwide received training in campaign communications, using a campaign for a dedicated water goal as a point for training
- Throughout 2014 dozens of Permanent Representatives at the UN signed a call for a dedicated water goal in the Post-2015 Development Agenda. The UN General Assembly has agreed that a proposed 17 goals serve as a basis for negotiations, however this agreement is just the starting point. 2015 will be a crucial year to ensure water stays on the SDG Agenda.
- Throughout 2014 dozens of Permanent Representatives at the UN signed a call for a dedicated water goal in the Post-2015 Development Agenda. The UN General Assembly has agreed that a proposed 17 goals serve as a basis for negotiations, however this agreement is just the starting point. 2015 will be a crucial year to ensure water stays on the SDG Agenda.
- Throughout 2014 dozens of Permanent Representatives at the UN signed a call for a dedicated water goal in the Post-2015 Development Agenda. The UN General Assembly has agreed that a proposed 17 goals serve as a basis for negotiations, however this agreement is just the starting point. 2015 will be a crucial year to ensure water stays on the SDG Agenda.
- This year, countries will be negotiating a series of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as part of the United Nations Post-2015 Development Agenda. These goals are in follow-up to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, which in 2000 formed a blueprint that inspired unprecedented global effort to meet the needs of the world’s poorest. It is crucially important for efforts to curb the global water crisis that water be reflected as a priority within this Post-2015 Development Agenda. Continued country-level support for a dedicated water goal is essential as negotiations are underway. The new Sustainable Development Goals are expected to be endorsed by World Leaders during the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in 2015.
- This year, countries will be negotiating a series of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as part of the United Nations Post-2015 Development Agenda. These goals are in follow-up to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, which in 2000 formed a blueprint that inspired unprecedented global effort to meet the needs of the world’s poorest. It is crucially important for efforts to curb the global water crisis that water be reflected as a priority within this Post-2015 Development Agenda. Continued country-level support for a dedicated water goal is essential as negotiations are underway. The new Sustainable Development Goals are expected to be endorsed by World Leaders during the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in 2015.